CITIC Think Tank： Prospect of Eight Consumption Trends in China in 2025

On April 13th, 2025, the 5th China International Consumer Goods Expo (hereinafter referred to as Consumer Expo) was held in Hainan International Convention and Exhibition Center. period, CITIC think tank released the report "Eight Trends of China’s Consumption in 2025".

Jiang Ya, an expert of CITIC think tank and chief analyst of consumer industry of CITIC Securities Research Institute, and Yu Xiang, chief analyst of policy research, combined with macro-economy, policy orientation and technological changes, interpreted the consumption trend of China market around the supply and demand ends of consumer industry.

Trend 1:

Return to rationality, quality upgrading and consumption equalization go hand in hand

At present, consumer spending is rational, and in the long run, the internal upgrading trend of consumption will not change. Consumers pay more attention to "cost performance" in clothing and household items. This phenomenon is similar to the trend of clothing de-branding and beer degradation during the period of pressure on foreign consumption power. However, consumers are not limited to balancing the price when measuring the cost performance, but also pay attention to the additional added value brought by the products, such as mood and health. This trend shows that the pursuit of high-quality life by different groups of consumers is the common underlying logic. Under the same design and quality, more consumers choose domestic brands with obvious price advantages.

Trend 2:

Happy life, spiritual appeal drives experience consumption.

After the per capita GDP of developed countries exceeded 10,000 US dollars, the proportion of service consumption increased significantly, and the transformation of residents from material satisfaction consumption to high-end consumption, improved consumption and personalized consumption accelerated. China is also experiencing this transformation. About 260 million generation Z (born in 1995-2009), as the core promoters, have the characteristics of self-satisfaction and strong consumption power, and their consumption power is improving. At the same time, after 70 years of retirement age, compared with the previous generation of silver-haired people, their consumption concept is stronger and their emotional demands are richer. We expect that the consumption of fragrance, jewelry, beauty cosmetics, luxury goods, IP goods at the commodity end, and spiritual satisfaction such as leisure, entertainment and health care at the service end will show a clear upward trend.

Trend 3:

Consumption is new, and technology iteration promotes new directions.

Digital economy and biotechnology are giving birth to a new direction of consumption and challenging the traditional consumption pattern. Digital economy is the key word in China government’s policies to stimulate consumption, which will push technologies such as artificial intelligence, virtual reality, augmented reality and metauniverse into the consumption scene. In the field of biotechnology, the application of synthetic biology in agriculture, food and beauty cosmetics deserves attention.

Trend 4:

The cycle is open, and China’s consumption is at the right time

Following the traditional advantageous industries such as home appliances, automobiles and consumer electronics, the Internet and local consumer brand enterprises have also entered the stage of seeking increment at sea. In addition to the export-oriented industries, "water sellers" who provide supporting services for overseas enterprises, such as cross-border platforms, logistics, payment, marketing and exhibition services, will be the first to benefit. At the destination, Europe and America are still the main markets, but emerging markets such as the Middle East and Southeast Asia are emerging.

Trend 5:

Trade-in the old for the new, strengthen the expansion, improve quality and increase efficiency

In 2025, the trade-in policy will be more effective. In terms of funds, the amount of subsidy funds this year is 300 billion yuan, a substantial increase over last year; In terms of strength, the amount of subsidies for new energy buses and power batteries has increased from 60,000 yuan to 80,000 yuan, which is also significantly higher than last year; In terms of scope, three types of digital products, such as mobile phones, tablets and smart watch bracelets, have been added. It is estimated that in 2025, the amount of 300 billion yuan of old-for-new subsidies will incite 630 billion yuan of incremental sales, driving the total retail sales of consumer goods to increase by 1.3 percentage points.

Trend 6:

Increase income and reduce burdens, and improve residents’ spending power.

The policy layer pays more attention to the improvement of residents’ consumption power and promotes residents’ income increase and burden reduction. In the short term, measures such as raising the minimum wage standard, residents’ pension standard and the salary of financial support personnel are expected to be introduced. In the medium and long term, improving residents’ income should not only improve the wage growth mechanism of workers, but also further cultivate and expand more high value-added industries.

Trend 7:

Maternity allowance was extended from the pilot to the whole country.

In 2025, the National People’s Congress and the National People’s Congress clearly put forward the idea of "formulating fertility promotion policies and granting childcare subsidies". It is expected that the maternity subsidy policies in various places will gradually shift from pilot to full-scale, and at the same time accelerate the construction of all-round "fertility support" policy system covering the fields of nursing care, nursery services and educational support. In March, Hohhot released the detailed rules of local maternity allowance, in which the maximum single-child allowance can reach 100,000 yuan, which is significantly higher than the current pilot policy. Extrapolating the whole country according to the subsidy standard of Hohhot, it is estimated that the financial expenditure of maternity subsidy will be 287 billion yuan by 2030, accounting for only 0.2% of GDP, which is still far from other countries.

Trend 8:

Stock market, property market and asset price attach importance to upgrading.

Stabilizing the stock market and the property market was first written into the government work report in 2025. Real estate accounts for about 60% of China residents’ asset structure, which plays an important role in residents’ balance sheet. It is estimated that for every 1% increase in housing prices in China, household consumption will increase by 0.09%; For every 1% increase in share price, household consumption will increase by 0.02%. Subsequent house prices and stock prices have gradually stabilized under a package of policies, further promoting the stabilization of household consumption.

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