Internet of Things chip manufacturer Tailingwei science and technology innovation board IPO suspended! Tracing the two major reasons behind it

Science and technology innovation board Daily, January 16th (Reporter Zhang Yinhai) Due to the fact that the actual controller still has a large amount of debt outstanding and the sales expense ratio is much higher than the industry average, the science and technology innovation board IPO of Internet of Things chip manufacturer Tailing Microelectronics (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Tailing Micro") was blocked, and the recent meeting of the Shanghai Municipal Committee decided to postpone the deliberation.

According to the company, the total realizable assets of the actual controller, Wang Weihang, and the cash inflow before the debt maturity date are expected to effectively cover the repayment amount of the loan principal and interest in each period, and the "old friend" provided Wang Weihang with 100 million yuan of ten-year interest-free credit loans.

However, from the breakdown of expenses, over 80% of the sales expenses of Tailingwei are employee salaries, and the average salary of overseas personnel is 1.47 times that of domestic employees.

Equity pledge approaches the warning line

At the 5th trial meeting in 2023 held on January 12th, members of the municipal party committee asked questions about Tailingwei and its sponsor representatives on the spot, including six questions, including the verification of the Memorandum of Cooperation and the operation in 2021.

Due to the fact that the actual controller still has a large amount of outstanding debts and the sales expense ratio is significantly higher than the industry average, the Shanghai Municipal Committee decided to suspend the consideration of Tailingwei science and technology innovation board IPO.

The science and technology innovation board Journal reporter noted that in the previous two rounds of inquiries, the above two major issues were focused on, but some of the contents were replied and verified or still not recognized by the regulatory authorities.

It is reported that in order to pay equity purchase money to Gao Peng, the original shareholder of Tailing Co., Ltd., and complete the demolition of the structured arrangement of Gao Peng, the original shareholder, Wang Weihang, the actual controller of the company, raised relevant funds by borrowing, resulting in a large debt. As of January 5, 2023, Wang Weihang had a loan balance of 185 million yuan through stock pledge and 332 million yuan from Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, with a total loan balance of 517 million yuan.

The relevant person in charge of Tailingwei told the reporter of science and technology innovation board Daily that,Wang Weihang’s total realizable assets and cash inflow before debt maturity are expected to effectively cover the repayment amount of loan principal and interest in each period, and large debts will not have a direct and significant adverse impact on the stability of company control..

In the reply to the inquiry, the company said that Wang Weihang would repay the debt by reducing the shares of Huasheng Tiancheng, personal salary, selling real estate and disposing of fund shares. According to its calculation, as of January 5, 58.22 million shares of Huasheng Tiancheng held by Wang Weihang (accounting for 5.31% of the total share capital) were worth 315 million yuan, the total value of four properties in Hainan and Beijing was about 150 million yuan, personal salary and dividends were about 18 million yuan, and the return on foreign investment was about 170 million yuan (including fund management fees and LP share value, etc.), totaling 653 million yuan.

However, due to the poor performance of Huasheng Tiancheng in recent years, its secondary market trend has also been sluggish. As of December 31, 2022, the performance guarantee ratio of Wang Weihang’s equity pledge business in Essence Securities was 152.45%, slightly higher than the early warning line of 150%.

In addition, Wang Weihang plans to reduce his holdings of Huasheng Tiancheng by no more than 14.56 million shares (about 1.33% of the company’s total share capital) through centralized bidding or block trading within six months from January 4, 2023. Once it starts to reduce its holdings, Huasheng Tiancheng’s share price will not only be under pressure, but also the shareholding ratio of Wang Weihang, the largest shareholder, will be reduced to less than 5%, and the ownership structure will be more dispersed.

It is noteworthy that an "old friend" of Wang Weihang provided him with 100 million yuan of interest-free ten-year credit loans.Among them, 35 million yuan is cash, and the rest is shares of listed companies with a value of not less than 65 million yuan. According to the company, the "old friend" and Wang Weihang are both members of the management team that founded Huasheng Tiancheng in 1998.

Deducted non-net profit decreased by 50% in 2022.

Compared with peers such as Hengxuan Technology, Broadcom Integration, Juxin Technology and Zhongke Lanxun, the sales expense ratio of Tailingwei and management fee rate are obviously higher. In particular, the sales expense ratio is much higher than that of peer companies.

"Because the company’s downstream application fields and product forms are rich, the direct sales model revenue accounts for a relatively high proportion, and overseas sales are carried out, the sales expense ratio is higher than the average of peer companies." Tailingwei replied to the reporter of science and technology innovation board Daily.

However, from the expense breakdown, the company’s employees’ salary accounts for more than 80% of the sales expenses, and there is a big difference between domestic and foreign employees’ salary. The data shows that by the end of 2021, there were 39 domestic salespeople in Tailingwei, with a per capita salary of 498,400 yuan. There are 18 overseas salespeople, with a per capita salary of 1,229,600 yuan, and the average salary of overseas personnel is 1.47 times that of domestic employees.

In this regard, the company said thatThe differences in sales staff’s working experience and rank, the difficulty in developing clients and clients, the income level at home and abroad and the cost of employment have led to a significantly higher average salary of overseas sales staff.

However, from the perspective of regional distribution of sales revenue and sales model, Tailingwei’s high overseas cost did not show its advantages. About 55% of the company’s revenue in the past three years has come from China, and the proportion of distribution revenue has increased to about 55%.

It should be noted that Tailingwei is mainly engaged in R&D, design and sales of wireless Internet of Things (IOT) in system on a chip, and nearly 85% of its revenue comes from the consumer electronics field. Affected by the slowdown in downstream market demand and other factors,The company’s performance in 2022 also dropped sharply. It is estimated that the revenue will reach 610 million yuan to 620 million yuan in 2022, down 6.09% to 4.55% year-on-year. Obtained a net profit of 33 million yuan to 36 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 55.74% to 51.71%.

For the decline in the performance of the first three quarters, the company said that it was mainly caused by factors such as the high base in the same period of last year, the industry boom in this period being less than expected, the increase in unit cost and the change in product sales structure. By the end of September 2022, the average selling price of the company’s IOT chip products was 1.8 yuan/chip, down 6.7% year-on-year. The sales volume was 224 million pieces, down 15.2% year-on-year.

"Although the company’s sub-sectors have been hit in the short term, they will still maintain a high degree of prosperity in the future." Tailing Micro told the reporter of science and technology innovation board Daily that the company’s current product strategy is based on a positive outlook for the future of Internet of Things applications, and strives for the first-Mover advantage for the explosive growth of one or several applications in the future.

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"Clean field rice" becomes "good heart" for scientific farming, which is more worry-free. Shenzhen biological breeding technology changes traditional farming mode and promotes seed industry revitaliza

editorial comment/note
Agricultural power is the foundation of socialist modernization power. In the strategic process of comprehensively promoting rural revitalization, vigorously promoting agricultural and rural modernization, and accelerating the construction of an agricultural power, a remarkable "Shenzhen Power" has formed. Taking advantage of the advantages of industry, technology, innovation, talents, trade and opening up, Shenzhen has taken the initiative in the practice of counterpart cooperation and the development of market economy, closely focused on the needs of the whole province, tried its best to open up new fields, find out the right power points, and strived to contribute Shenzhen’s strength to the agricultural and rural modernization of the whole province. Shenzhen Special Zone Daily and Reader clients have captured some stories and launched a series of reports, so please pay attention.
In order to make salad look better, lettuce can grow lace leaves; In order to plant more worry-free, peanuts can resist diseases independently; In order to save labor, rice can be harvested for several years at a time … It is not a gift for crops to cooperate with human beings, but a "blessing" from Shenzhen agricultural biotechnology.
Spring is the first year of the year, and agriculture is the first. Located in Jingkou Village, Guangming District, the researchers of Shenzhen Crop Molecular Design and Breeding Institute took action early. In the greenhouse, green seedlings were inserted into the mud, neat and uniform. The researchers carefully observed and recorded the data of seedling growth. Everyone said something to me: "Don’t look at the small number of acres we planted,’ busy farming’ can not lose farmers."
The field-cleaning model of "making planting easier" was born here and spread to the whole province and the whole country. At present, the accumulated experimental demonstration area is more than 1.5 million mu, which helps more grain-producing areas to realize agricultural mechanized production and gives China more autonomy in the field of agricultural science and technology. The Municipal Institute of Crop Molecular Design and Breeding has made great breakthroughs in many breeding technologies, such as clean field mode, whole genome molecular marker-assisted breeding technology, wide three-line hybrid breeding technology, and made contributions to the revitalization of seed industry and the construction of a strong agricultural country.
Planting one-season rice only needs weeding once.
One person can directly sow the seeds of "Jietian Rice" into a 60-mu paddy field in one day without raising seedlings or transplanting seedlings. You only need to spray herbicides once during the growth period. At harvest time, the rice fields are neat and clean, and there are no weeds.
Such a worry-free, time-saving and labor-saving farming mode has made "Jietian Rice" from Shenzhen a "good heart" for farmers in Leizhou, Guangdong. "Farming has been much easier in recent years, which not only solves the annoying harm of weedy rice, but also increases the income per mu to nearly 400 yuan." The villagers in Yangjia Town are full of praise for Jietian Rice.
"Clean-field rice refers to rice with herbicide resistance. It can be used with a matching herbicide, and weeds can be eliminated at one time through mechanized sowing. Under the premise of no reduction in yield, clean rice can make farmers complete field work more time-saving and labor-saving. " Tang Xiaoyan, vice president of the Municipal Institute of Crop Molecular Design and Breeding, told the reporter that clean rice technology has provided a new planting model for rice. By integrating molecular breeding, variety improvement, pesticide application and agricultural machinery, farmers can farm more easily.
As a herbicide-resistant rice technology with completely independent intellectual property rights in China, Jietian Rice has broken the technical monopoly of multinational companies in this field.
For this new variety, new technology and new model, Tang Xiaoyan and the team have struggled silently for 13 years.
In 2010, Tang Xiaoyan and his team planted more than 100 kilograms of mutated rice seeds in more than 60 acres of experimental fields, and harvested 12 tons of seeds. They planted 2 tons of seeds in the fields, sprayed herbicides at the seedling stage, and finally got a resistant rice. "The offspring of this rice plant are several times more resistant to herbicides than similar rice in the United States." Tang Xiaoyan said.
With herbicide-resistant rice materials, Tang Xiaoyan’s team has made progress towards another goal: to cultivate rice varieties with more excellent characters at the same time. She cooperated with more than 30 domestic breeding experts to carry out cross breeding. After more than six years, she finally cultivated a new herbicide-resistant variety with many excellent characters.
"The long period of hard work requires huge investment, but with the strong support of the Municipal Party Committee, the Municipal Government, the Guangming District Government, the Municipal Market Supervision Bureau, the Municipal Science and Technology Commission and other departments, we finally survived." Referring to the long period of technical research, Tang Xiaoyan is not without feelings.
In 2017, Tang Xiaoyan’s team brought Jietian Rice to Zhanjiang for planting demonstration in the field of a 70-year-old farmer in Leizhou. The farmer didn’t believe in Jietian Rice, and reluctantly agreed to take out 4 mu of land for the experiment, and asked Tang Xiaoyan’s team to promise to cover all the losses.
"In the harvest season, 4 mu of clean rice grows neatly, the field is clean and beautiful, and the yield per mu is nearly 1,100 Jin. The 4 mu of land planted by the uncle himself is overgrown with weeds and rice, and the maximum harvest per mu is about 200 kg. Grandpa was convinced at once. " Tang Xiaoyan recalled.
Only when new crop varieties enter the vast farmland can they really bring benefits into play. In 2018, the Municipal Crop Molecular Design and Research Institute established an industrialized enterprise-Shenzhen Jietian Mode Biotechnology Co., Ltd., which started the industrialization journey of Jietian’s technological achievements.
"Jietian rice has been planted on a large scale in Zhanjiang, and Leizhou alone has accounted for more than 80% of the local rice planting area." Chen Lei, technical director of Shenzhen Jietian Mode Biotechnology Co., Ltd., said that Jietian has achieved remarkable results and is very popular with growers. The planting area has doubled year after year, and it has moved from Guangdong to the whole country. Last year, the national planting area reached 950,000 mu, which increased farmers’ income by 150-300 yuan per mu. This year, three clean rice varieties will be tested and demonstrated in Lufeng, Shanwei.
An acre of land is used as an acre and a half.
In a big field, corn and soybean are intercropped and planted in harmony to welcome a bumper harvest. This is the "new landscape" brought by the new herbicide-resistant corn variety of Jietian Technology Company.
For a long time, soybean production in China is low, and 80%-90% of soybeans are imported. Corn-soybean intercropping mode is to improve the corn-soybean intercropping system through technical integration and innovation, and increase the sown area and yield of soybean while ensuring corn yield.
A big problem facing this model is the difficulty of weeding.
"Corn and soybean are not compatible with the same herbicide, which leads to higher field management costs, lower operation efficiency and difficulty in mechanized operation." Tang Xiaoyan told reporters that the team has developed new traits of corn resistant to herbicides, and further cooperated with domestic corn breeders to cultivate new varieties of corn resistant to herbicides, so that corn can resist the same herbicide as soybeans, effectively solving the weeding problem of corn-soybean intercropping mode, so that one acre of field can be used as one and a half acres.
The emergence of corn seeds resistant to soybean herbicides provides a solution for the modern planting of soybean-corn intercropping. "The comprehensive integration of Jietian corn breeding technology and China’s intelligent agricultural machinery innovation can solve many problems of soybean and corn intercropping, and this model can be widely promoted in China in all directions." Tang Xiaoyan said.
At present, five new varieties of Jietian corn have passed the national and provincial audits, and the experimental demonstration of intercropping 10,000 mu of Jietian corn and soybean has been fully successful, increasing farmers’ income by 400 yuan per mu to 600 yuan, which has become the main promotion project of the Ministry of Agriculture and Agriculture.
Tang Xiaoyan is looking forward to using science and technology to change the traditional farming model, making it easier and more efficient for farmers to farm land and harvest better and higher-yielding grain.
The breeding industry system is beginning to grow.
Among the research results of Tang Xiaoyan’s team, there is a very important "Guangdong three-line" hybrid breeding technology system. Academician Yuan Longping once praised this technology as "3G hybrid breeding technology".
In the naming of "Guangsanlian", the word "Guang" means that this technology was successfully developed on the basis of a Guangdong high-quality rice after the team landed in Guangdong, and on the other hand, it means that the hybrid range of "Guangsanlian" is very wide, which breaks through the restriction of the relationship between restoration and maintenance in the traditional three-line hybrid rice technology.
Tang Xiaoyan introduced that traditional hybrid breeding techniques generally adopt "two-line method" and "three-line method". In traditional breeding, it takes at least 5 to 10 years for an excellent breeder to cultivate a high-quality three-line or two-line sterile line. With the breeding technology of "Guangsan Line", an ordinary breeder can cultivate a high-quality sterile line material in just three years according to the established steps and processes, and can also realize mass production.
The research on the hybrid breeding technology system of "Guangsan Line" began when the institute landed in Shenzhen, and it took more than five years to develop successfully. In the agricultural breeding circle, which often takes more than ten years or even decades to have a breeding technology innovation, such research and development speed is amazing. This new technology, which was praised by Yuan Longping, improved the utilization rate of rice variety resources from 5% to over 95%, and at the same time avoided the dependence on light and temperature, and the reliability was significantly improved.
In recent years, the level of Shenzhen agriculture has been continuously improved in terms of talent team cultivation, innovative technology platform construction, achievement transformation and enterprise incubation, and a modern biological breeding industrial system of "combining Industry-University-Research, integrating breeding, reproduction and promotion" has been initially formed, with increasingly obvious agglomeration effect and increasingly enhanced demonstration and driving role. A number of innovative agricultural science and technology enterprises and institutions have gradually embarked on a road of high-end agricultural industrialization of biological breeding in Shenzhen, with new varieties and new achievements constantly emerging, making new contributions to the self-reliance and self-improvement of agricultural science and technology.
short review
Gather all forces to win the seed industry’s turnaround
Grain is the foundation of the country, and seed industry is the foundation of grain. To consolidate the foundation of food security in an all-round way and accelerate the construction of an agricultural power, we must firmly grasp the seeds.
The clean rice technology developed by Shenzhen Institute of Crop Molecular Design and Breeding not only broke the monopoly of foreign technology, but also extended the technical achievements to all parts of the country to help more grain-producing areas realize mechanized production. The institute has also developed herbicide-resistant corn, wheat, rape and other crop seeds, and continuously expanded the team of agricultural breeding in Shenzhen.
In recent years, Shenzhen has vigorously promoted scientific research in seed industry, introduced, cultivated and supported a number of agricultural scientific research institutions and agricultural science and technology enterprises like Shenzhen Institute of Crop Molecular Design and Breeding, and achieved a series of gratifying results. The research on hybrid rice, insect-resistant cotton and hybrid potato has reached the international leading level. In the cultivation of new vegetable varieties, Shenzhen’s "Baozhu No.1" tomato has been popularized for more than 600,000 mu, generating more than 1.2 billion yuan for farmers, eggplant grafting technology has been popularized for more than 500,000 mu, and a new variety "Ambition No.1" has been bred, which has been popularized for more than 100,000 mu, generating nearly 300 million yuan for farmers … Shenzhen has made contributions to national food security with endless new varieties, new achievements and new breakthroughs.
The revitalization of seed industry has a long way to go. Shenzhen, which is building a pioneering demonstration area of agricultural science and technology innovation, can give full play to its existing advantages in seed industry research, further unite the strength of various agricultural institutions and enterprises, and gather into a stronger Shenzhen force, providing stronger support for the country to win the seed industry turnaround, push China into the ranks of world seed industry powers, ensure national food security, and constantly build a national security barrier.
(Photo courtesy of the respondents)
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The repairman counted ten durable family car engines, and Volkswagen can only rank last.

As a mechanic who has been working in the automobile industry for more than 10 years, I have also been exposed to various engines and repaired tens of thousands of cars over the years. I am quite clear about the faults of various engines. Today, I will take stock of 10 small-displacement naturally aspirated engines with better quality in my heart, hoping to provide some reference when you buy used cars.

The first place, I believe you have all heard of it, is the famous Mitsubishi engine, code 4A91. This engine is not only mounted on Mitsubishi cars, but also widely used in Southeast China, Haval, Zotye, BYD, Cheetah, Changan, BAIC and Dongfeng. Large assembly capacity, low failure rate and low noise are the characteristics of this engine, which is also the reason why I ranked it first. I have never overhauled this engine, and I have never met a large area of oil leakage. The disadvantage is that the valve cover is plastic, which is easy to leak oil after a long time.

Second place, Toyota 1ZR1.6 engine, the famous Corolla, is this engine, which is famous for its durability and convenient maintenance. I have repaired the car for so many years, and rarely encountered this engine leaking oil and burning oil.

Third place, Honda L15A7, 1.5 self-priming engine, which is also classic and small in size, single overhead camshaft. This model used in the treasure-preserving magic car used to be an imitation of this machine, but the quality is far from good.

No.4, Nissan HR16, 1.6 self-priming engine. This engine is famous for its fuel saving, durability and silence. Until now, Nissan is still using it. Nissan, Qichen and Fengshen have a large number of assemblies. I have seen this engine run 200,000 kilometers a year, and the valve cover of the casing cylinder head is all aluminum alloy to prevent oil leakage.

Fifth place, general L2B, 1.5 naturally aspirated engine, he is also a magic machine, widely used in Buick Chevrolet and Wuling models, Wuling Hongguang is using this engine, once just listed, if you use this machine, it will not have such a bad reputation.

Sixth place, Hyundai Kia, G4FC, 1.6 self-priming, widely used in various models of Hyundai Kia, K2, K3, all of which are widely used. This engine is much better in quality than his eldest brother 2.0 self-priming, and the 2.0 model with reduced cylinder wall nozzle is easy to crank and burn engine oil.

Seventh place, the 1.5 self-priming engine shared by Mazda and Ford, the specific model is unknown, and both Ma Er and Ma San are used, and the quality is stable, and it has not been repaired much.

Seventh place, Volkswagen EA111, 1.6 engine, this machine has made great contributions to the public, most of its models are used, the carrying capacity is not less than Mitsubishi engine, and the leather is solid and durable. The previous taxis and coaches can prove the Excellence of this machine.

However, there are two small faults in this machine, which is the reason why I ranked him last. The first one is that the sealing ring of the spark plug in the cylinder head is easy to leak oil. This is a design problem. To fix this problem, the sealing ring costs ten yuan, and the man-hour needs more than 600 yuan. Some main parts of the engine need to be removed before it can be replaced.

Another is that the thermostat seat is easy to leak, because it is made of engineering plastic and has been used for a long time. There must be water leakage. This is the reason why he ranks lower. The above engines will hardly have such low-level errors.

No.8, the immortal bird engine of Citroen, TU5JP4.1.6 engine, is used by many cars under Dongfeng. This engine has relatively stable quality, but its fuel consumption is a little high. There is no new technology. The timing belt and plastic valve cover used are prone to oil leakage after a long time. The timing belt has a large number of kilometers and must be replaced, which invisibly increases the cost of car maintenance.

No.10, Volkswagen EA 2111.5 self-priming engine, many people are curious, isn’t this engine excellent? Why is it the last? I admit that this engine is excellent, with large quantity, low fuel consumption and fast dynamic response. Many of them have run for hundreds of thousands of kilometers without major repair.

The reason why I put him last is not that he is of poor quality. It’s that he used a timing belt, which is the same as Citroen. It’s not that it’s not good to use a timing belt, but that it needs maintenance. His previous generation EA 111 is a timing chain, but it doesn’t need maintenance. The improved 211 is a belt, and the cost of car maintenance is much higher than other engines with the same displacement. Even if a car costs 500 yuan, how much will a million cars cost? Another problem is that his water pump, integrated with thermostat, has not been improved, and the engineering plastic used has been broken for a long time.

The above 10 models are the excellent small-displacement engines. You can close your eyes when buying used cars. As long as the former owners maintain them in place, it is generally not a problem to run for hundreds of thousands of kilometers. Of course, my point of view is only for reference, and the actual purchase needs to be checked at different levels. After all, one car is in one condition.

Seminar on key topics of cooperation between China Academy of Engineering and local governments was held in Guangzhou.

  Cctv news In order to promote the digital transformation of the whole manufacturing chain in Guangdong Province, a seminar was held in Guangzhou recently, which was undertaken by Guangzhou Greater Bay Area Institute of Modern Industrial Development (hereinafter referred to as the "Institute"), a key project of cooperation between the China Academy of Engineering and the local government. Tong Qingxi, a senior researcher and head of the research group and academician of China Academy of Sciences, presided over the meeting.

  At the meeting, it was decided that Cao Heping, vice chairman of China Economic Reform Research Foundation, senior researcher of the Institute and professor of Peking University Institute of Economics, would be the executive head of the research group, while Sun Yanming, vice president of Guangzhou University, and Cao Changlin, executive dean of the Institute, would be the deputy heads of the research group. Wang Jinnian, academician of the International Academy of Astronautics and professor of Guangzhou University, Ms. Zhong Kezhi, deputy of Guangdong Provincial People’s Congress and executive director of the Institute, Dr. Zhang Zhiqiang, distinguished member of Guangdong Provincial Political Consultative Conference and executive director of the Strategy Committee of the Institute, Zhong Xudong and Li Yutian, vice presidents of the Institute, and members of relevant project teams such as South China University of Technology and Guangzhou University attended the seminar.

Professor Cao Heping.

Professor Cao Heping.

  Cao Heping, the executive director of the research group and professor of Peking University, explained the proposed policy advice on the current situation, existing problems and development situation of Guangdong manufacturing industry, benchmarking examples at home and abroad and ideal transformation and upgrading model. He said that Guangdong must pay close attention to the key direction and entry point path of the full-chain digital transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry, and promote the open source working mechanism of manufacturing enterprises in Guangdong Province and the construction of intermediate products market of digital manufacturers through the ecological construction diagram of the development of core enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises in the full-chain digital transformation of manufacturing industry, and explore a pioneering demonstration road for the high-quality development of manufacturing industry in Guangdong Province.

Professor Sun Yanming

Professor Sun Yanming

  Professor Sun Yanming, deputy head of the research group and vice president of Guangzhou University, said that the digital economy is becoming a key force to reorganize global factor resources, reshape the global economic structure and change the global competition pattern. Guangdong has established a relatively complete industrial system, and the brand-new transformation of the industrial chain through digitalization is expected to push the competitiveness of the manufacturing industry to a new level. The strategic research of this topic will play a leading and supporting role in Guangdong manufacturing industry.

Cao Changlin, Executive Dean of the Institute

Cao Changlin, Executive Dean of the Institute

  Cao Changlin, deputy head of the research group and executive dean of the research institute, said that the manufacturing industry has made Guangdong’s economy "resilient", and Guangdong is also guided by the digital transformation of manufacturing industry, and continues to promote the integration and development of digital economy and real economy. He believes that many small and medium-sized enterprises in Guangdong are recreating their advantages on their own tracks, but there are still many shortcomings in terms of independent innovation capability, resource utilization efficiency, industrial structure level, informationization level, quality and efficiency. Based on the research, the Institute will serve as a high-end think tank platform to empower small and medium-sized enterprises, promote the transformation of comparative advantage into competitive advantage, and accelerate the digital transformation and upgrading.

Academician Tong Qingxi

Academician Tong Qingxi

  Academician Tong Qingxi pointed out that Guangdong is a big manufacturing province, with a modern industrial system with relatively complete categories and complete supporting facilities, but at the same time, it faces big but not prominent problems. "This time, we took the topic as an opportunity to sort out the mode of digital transformation of Guangdong manufacturing industry and create ‘ Guangdong sample ’ , so that more manufacturing industries can ‘ Draw a gourd ladle ’ Actively embrace the wave of digital industrialization and industrial digitalization. "

  According to reports, academicians You Zheng and Dong Shaoming of China Academy of Engineering, Wu Lun of the International Eurasian Academy of Sciences and Wang Jinnian of the International Academy of Astronautics are members of the advisory group of key projects. The research group will compile the results of group work report, comprehensive report, research report, literature archives, interim report and general report, publish monographs, hold academic work meetings regularly, write research briefs for academic promotion, and propose policy suggestions and major proposals.

"Touching the Net" in Hangzhou Daily

 

Central control hall of intelligent media center of Hangbao Group. Information picture

    "In the traditional media, the first attempt at electronization was a local newspaper-Hangzhou Daily Afternoon Edition. On December 6, 1993, Hangzhou Daily Afternoon Edition was transmitted through the city’s online service network, which opened the prelude to the electronization of China newspapers. " This description comes from the journalism and communication textbook China Journalism and Communication History edited by Professor Fang Hanqi of China Renmin University.

    From a four-page newspaper printed with lead movable type to more newspapers and periodicals; From the regional media with dozens of employees working in a small building less than 100 square meters when it was founded, it has become a well-known local newspaper group in Zhejiang Province and even the Yangtze River Delta. Hangzhou Daily, the predecessor of Hangzhou Daily Newspaper Group, has produced the first "electronic newspaper" in China, and has embarked on a characteristic road in the exploration of media integration.

    Hi! Good afternoon

    The trip to the avenue opens the way for public opinion. The national public opinion circles are very active, and new theories, new viewpoints, new experiences and new practices emerge one after another, which are reflected in the field of news reporting. The new reporting topics, information and models make it difficult for the original single newspaper to carry them. At that time, under the background of the flourishing of evening newspapers all over the country, Hangzhou Daily opened the first "bold breakthrough" in the country-the afternoon edition was founded.

    The approval of the afternoon edition went smoothly. The approval process of Hangzhou Municipal Committee and Zhejiang Provincial Party Committee Propaganda Department was completed in two days. On November 1, 1993, Hangzhou Daily Afternoon Edition was officially published. Like its parent newspaper, Hangzhou Daily, the Afternoon Edition is the organ newspaper of Hangzhou Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China, which forms a mutually rolling, extending and complementary relationship with the reports of the parent newspaper. The report is more lively in form, more close to the people in perspective, more rapid in timeliness, wider in field, more novel in means and more brisk in style.

    One day before the publication of the inaugural issue, an editor reported his ideas to the leader: "Hi! Good afternoon ",which is also known as the shortest inaugural word in history. The afternoon edition takes this as an opportunity to drastically improve the style of writing, such as not repeating the introduction of general news, and increasing the sense of scene and visual effect by on-site reporting. On December 6th of the same year, Hangzhou Daily Afternoon Edition founded the first "electronic newspaper" in China.

    Look! Electronic newspaper

    "Electronic newspaper" means that the editorial department of Hangzhou Daily will input the printed newspaper content into the network of the computer online service company through the communication line. Users can access the newspaper content that has entered the online service network through the computer through the telephone line.

    The "electronic newspaper" launched by Hangzhou Daily is loaded and transmitted synchronously with the publication of Hangzhou Daily through the Hangzhou social online service network-Prospect Consulting Network. Readers can quickly see the full-page newspaper content or the required news, stock market quotes, foreign exchange quotes and other contents on the computer screen, which greatly improves the timeliness and competitiveness of news. At that time, there were hundreds of users of Prospect Information Network in Hang Cheng, and they could see all the contents of Hangzhou Daily on the computer screen every morning. You can see Hangzhou Daily Afternoon Edition at noon.

    This caused quite a stir in the domestic media at that time. Zhang Kaiqing, Chairman of Hong Kong Jinshan Computer (Group) Co., Ltd., and Hong Tianci, Chairman of Singapore ATS Group Company, made a special trip to Hangzhou Prospect Consulting Co., Ltd. to visit and apply for joining Prospect Consulting Network, so as to keep abreast of various development information in Hangzhou. Guangdong Dongguan municipal government and other units outside the province have also called to inquire and applied for network access.

    The advent of "electronic newspaper" reflects the spirit of continuous exploration and innovation in the form and carrier of paper media, which marks an important step for newspapers to spread from paper media to electronic network on the road of electronic collection, editing and publishing.

    Since then, Hangbao Group has created many national firsts: In 1999, Metropolitan Express became the first four-opening special-shaped extended newspaper in China, leading the trend of China Metropolis Daily; In 2000, the news portal "Hangzhou Net" was founded, which took the first step for the traditional paper media to truly "touch the net". In 2005, he took the lead in launching the strategy of digital newspaper industry in China. In 2008, the development model of "one newspaper and one network" was put forward, and the integration of newspapers and networks and the transformation of all media were tried; In 2009, it was the first time that newspapers, internet and mobile phones were integrated into the media model in China.

    Deciduous! convergence media

    Although the "electronic newspaper" of Hangzhou Daily Afternoon Edition is of pioneering significance, at that time, when China was not connected to the Internet, this network was too small to be confined to a corner of Hangzhou, and this "touching the net" was still immature in technology, so its influence was limited.

    Compared with the present, the first "electronic newspaper" can only be counted as a member of the traditional media. A number of new technologies, such as artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing and virtual reality, have emerged one after another and been applied to news communication. These new technologies have completely changed the original media structure and brought severe challenges and transformation opportunities to the development of traditional media.

    How to inherit and carry forward the innovative genes of Hangbao Group in the new era and new situation, and actively embrace change and actively transform opportunities? In the view of Dong Yue, secretary of the Party Committee and president of Hangbao Group, it is necessary to "adhere to the development concept of" growing with the city ",base on Hangzhou metropolitan community, shoulder the responsibility and mission of the mainstream media to" educate people "and" prosper with literature ",and make Hangbao Group a local news source, authoritative information publisher, in-depth special topic interpreter, bridge of communication between the party and government and public opinion, and social information circle for citizens, and strive to create a challenging, but

    Through the efforts of several generations of Hangbao journalists, Hangbao Group has now built a mainstream communication matrix among similar media in the country, which highlights the media’s communication power, guidance, influence and credibility. There are nearly one million print media subscribers, and all kinds of new media products including mobile phone client, WeChat WeChat official account, mobile video products, official Weibo and Internet community, etc. There are 25 websites, 13 mobile phone clients, 109 WeChat WeChat official account, 20 official micro-channels in Weibo, 10 mobile newspaper products, 5 digital newspaper products and 6 audio and video products, covering 197 million users, which has laid a solid foundation for the media credibility of the newspaper group and the market influence of the company. (Reporter Huang Lin)

    Original title: Hangzhou Daily’s "Touching the Net" —— From the first "electronic newspaper" in China to the transformation of media integration

The first overseas tour group is happy to punch in. Person in charge of Deshou Palace: It is relatively easy to make an appointment on recent working days. It is recommended to visit the wrong peak.

Qianjiang evening news Hour Journalist Zhan Chengkai Correspondent Gong Jingwen
On the evening of February 15th, 18 Hong Kong tourists arrived at Hangzhou Xiaoshan International Airport, and started a four-night, five-day trip of Song Yun to welcome the Spring. This is the first Hong Kong inbound tour group in Zhejiang (Hangzhou) after the resumption of group tourism activities between mainland residents and Hong Kong and Macao, marking the official restart of inbound tourism in Zhejiang (Hangzhou). (Previous reports can be seen here. "Just now, Hangzhou ushered in the first Hong Kong tour group after the restart! The old TVB drama bones you are familiar with are here, and I want to punch in here most.
Today (February 16th) afternoon, a Hong Kong tour group visited the Museum of Deshou Palace Ruins in the Southern Song Dynasty, becoming the first overseas tour group received since the opening of Deshou Palace.
Hong Kong tour groups enjoy the "green channel for group reservation"
During this trip to Hangzhou, the Hong Kong tour group not only arranged the famous historical and cultural attractions such as West Lake, Lingyin Temple and Chenghuang Pavilion, but also added the newly opened "online celebrity punching place"-Deshou Palace Ruins Museum in the Southern Song Dynasty.
Under the guidance of the commentator, everyone visited various palaces and watched the digital presentation project of site excavation and protection. The Hong Kong tourist group also went to Beiyuan, which is quite interesting to visit the park, and felt the experience of making pictures of the Year of the Rabbit in the "Interesting Uptown" study in Juyuan Building.
"It feels shocking. From every detail of buildings, sites and cultural relics, you can feel the charm of culture, and the experience activities are also interesting and surprising." Tourist Ms. Xu said.
This time, the Hong Kong tour group was able to punch in at the Deshou Palace Ruins Museum in the Southern Song Dynasty and enjoyed the policy of "team booking green channel".
At the beginning of the year, Shangcheng District issued 28 policies of "winning the restoration war and winning a good start", including the policy of "free travel and preferential accommodation" to promote the economy, and clearly opened the green reservation channel of high-quality cultural tourism resources in Shangcheng to the travel agencies in its jurisdiction to attract Chinese and foreign tourists to visit and live in Shangcheng to the greatest extent, which not only provides convenience for travel agencies, but also can effectively help the economic recovery.
According to the policy,Since January 18th, 2023, Deshou Palace Museum has opened an appointment for qualified travel agencies. There are 12 groups every day, and each group has no more than 50 tourists. Travel agencies can make group telephone reservations 3-7 days in advance.Visit the museum during the opening period according to the scheduled visit time.
In addition to being more convenient to make an appointment, the travel agency can take a group to stay in the Shangcheng Hotel, and can also give certain rewards according to the number of group tourists.
"Deshou Palace is too hot, and it is difficult for our team to make an appointment. Thanks to this policy, we successfully made an appointment a few days earlier." The tour leader said.
It is relatively easy to make an appointment on the recent working day, so it is recommended to visit the wrong peak.
Recently, many friends who want to punch in at the Deshou Palace Ruins Museum in the Southern Song Dynasty found that compared with the previous "one ticket is hard to find", the current booking difficulty has decreased.
Zhou Yi, deputy director of the Deshou Palace Ruins Museum in the Southern Song Dynasty, told Qianbao that during this period, if you want to visit the Deshou Palace Ruins Museum in the Southern Song Dynasty on weekdays, it is really not very difficult to make an appointment, but the number of appointments on weekends will still be tight. “The reservation channel will open on time at 9: 00 every morning, so you can pay more attention to it and hope that you can visit it at the wrong peak as much as possible.. "
Zhou Ji also introduced the relevant information about team appointment. It is understood that since the Spring Festival this year, more than 40 teams have made an appointment to visit the Deshou Palace Ruins Museum in the Southern Song Dynasty.
"At present, our team appointments are mainly for travel teams and travel companies in Shangcheng District. Later, according to the carrying capacity of the entire museum and the overall planning, we will open appointments for more travel agencies and teams." Zhou Yi said that he hopes that more travel agencies and travel teams will be able to incorporate Deshou Palace into the tourist routes in the future. "We will continue to upgrade our services, including explaining services and booking services, to welcome tourists and fans."
The relevant person in charge of Shangcheng District Wenguang Tourism and Sports Bureau said that the first inbound tour group has brought a "good start". Next, it will use the opportunity of inbound tour recovery to seize the window of the revival of the cultural tourism industry in the New Year and launch the "Festival Exhibition in Shangcheng" action plan: "We expect to promote more tourists to come to Hangzhou, Shanghai and boost the tourism economy after the arrival of the first group."
This article is an original work of qianjiang evening news. Without permission, it is forbidden to reprint, copy, extract, rewrite and spread the copyright of all works on the Internet. Otherwise, this newspaper will pursue the legal responsibility of the infringer through judicial channels.
Reporting/feedback

Zhang Yimou Beijing International Film Festival Master Class Responds to the Controversy that Man Jiang Hong doesn’t kill Qin Gui.

On April 27th, Zhang Yimou, the chairman of the "Tiantan Award" jury of the 13th Beijing International Film Festival, opened a movie master class to review his film career and creative path with Song Fangjin, the guest speaker, and Chen Luyu, the host. Zhang Yimou responded to the controversy over whether to kill Qin Gui in Man Jiang Hong, saying that the box office of the film was beyond his expectation. I also talked about cooperation with actors, how to face bad reviews and new works in the future.

 Responding to the Controversy of "Kill or Not Kill Qin Gui" in Man Jiang Hong;

"When" Hero "didn’t kill Qin Shihuang, everyone spoke the most. They have been criticizing and scolding me, and this time they didn’t kill Qin Gui. This is a reincarnation, and everyone is discussing whether to kill or not. First of all, it must be in line with history. It’s not up to me to kill him or not. He didn’t die like this. If you make this up, everyone will be even more disgusted. But it doesn’t matter whether to kill or not. I think this is just a story. It’s not necessary to discuss it for so long. There is no need to get so angry on it. "

 Said "boundless hone red" box office surprised him:

"The box office is beyond my expectation. Making movies now is not the same as in the past. Now I often have to estimate the box office. I said at that time that 2 billion is a great victory." The courtyard of "Man Jiang Hong" was built for filming "Red Lantern 2". "Later, the courtyard was built, and I changed my mind. The script almost changed a lot, and I didn’t want to shoot it again. I took the Winter Olympics again. I didn’t have time, so I just left it. Later, I said, let’s make a change. Instead of making literary films, let’s make an entertainment film and a genre film. Of course, murder, murder, suspense and script killing are very atmospheric in this layered courtyard. "

 On Shen Tengzhang’s translation of the drama of being punished

"(Filming) requires the actors to go all out. I am very lucky to meet the best actors in China. Both actors are very dedicated and do it by themselves from beginning to end. For example, when you pour vinegar, the water from the jar is very strong. I told the extras to control the water, and I also told Shen Teng to give me a signal. If you can’t stand it, you can put your legs up. Later, he forgot to skip his legs, and when he poured it down, he kicked it around. He made all the preparations and tried to shoot it. However, the amount of water during the real shoot was unexpected. I believe that he was very uncomfortable, and it was not the problem of stretching his legs. He was instinctively scratching and pedaling. We all didn’t know if this was a signal, and we were a little confused. We didn’t know if he was performing. We thought it was really good, but later we found out that it was wrong. He couldn’t breathe, and he kept breathing and cramping when he got up. That was the first shot, and we put it at the end later. It looked very realistic. I asked him why he didn’t send a signal because he couldn’t stand it. He said it was chaotic, and his mind would be chaotic if it was too late. Therefore, the actor is immersed in the situation and has made great efforts to experience it, which is really touching professional ethics.

Zhang Yi, too, was very much like electrocution, and he was shaking all over. Of course, we can’t put people in danger in any work. Even artists, in the name of art, can’t let people take risks. Life must be the most precious. But when an actor tries these things, he actually wants to challenge himself and mobilize his professional spirit. "

How should directors face bad reviews?

Some viewers asked: Will the audience’s positive and negative comments affect their future work?

Zhang Yimou: "Now is the Internet age. I believe there is no director who does not pay attention to all kinds of comments on himself. I joked that I grew up with a curse, so I’m used to it. I think there is always an old saying in my generation: modesty makes people progress, pride makes people lag behind. I read the comments with this attitude. Even if it is all swearing, there are a few words that make sense, and I will remember them. They are all my next works, and many things are inferences, including criticism of you. "

Reflection on "Sniper" said that it was not good enough.

"I especially wanted to make a documentary at the beginning, so I chose an all-vegetarian, which may be better and cooler, but it is difficult to do. This belongs to taking the law and getting it. Because I have never fought a war, I have only read the materials, and it is very difficult to reproduce it. I always copy it, and I have no confidence in myself. The second is to shoot like a documentary, the expression of the emotional part will be weakened, there will be less sensationalism, and the story will be described more calmly, taking great risks, and the Spring Festival file may be at the bottom. For various reasons … It’s hard to be purely recorded. Moreover, I haven’t seen a special documentary of China’s war films, which is very difficult. "

He recalled the idea at that time: "At that time, there were a lot of war movies, and I didn’t want to repeat them, so I found a small incision. That group of actors is the orientation training that we spent a year looking for extensively. It is difficult to make a small incision, so we have to give up a lot of commercialism. The Battle at Lake Changjin’s Watergate Bridge is a collection of stars, with big stars making big moves and big feelings. We hope to use amateurs, that is, ordinary people around us.

 Zhang Yimou on New Works;

"I want to shoot a new film in June. I call it new realism. It is not just the expression of the author and the expression of the minority. It is also to let it enter the homes of ordinary people. The story is easy to understand."

Talking about how to keep a young creative attitude, Zhang Yimou: "First, I feel grateful. I keep the attitude of grateful times. People younger than me and my contemporaries have retired. I should have been a worker. I am very lucky to regard my hobby as a career because the times have given me opportunities, so I never dare to relax and don’t want to waste my time. Perhaps our generation just works hard; The second is to be self-disciplined, don’t spend so much time playing, pay attention to your diet, keep exercising every day, and be healthy and quick-witted. The third is to study a lot, read things indiscriminately on the Internet, keep understanding and feedback on information, think more and learn more. Every time you make a movie, you have to be innovative, that is, you have to do what you didn’t do. I don’t know anything about the online drama League of Legends. It is a game played by my son. I hope to make a cool and handsome feeling, that is, to innovate. "

Gain imagination and innovation from the differences of different cultural civilizations

  [Dialogue of Guangming International Forum]

Gain imagination and innovation from the differences of different cultural civilizations

  Yan haiping

  Professor and supervisor of modern literature, comparative literature and cross-cultural studies in Tsinghua University Foreign Languages Department and Chinese Department, chief professor of the World Literature Class in Tsinghua School, and dean of the Tsinghua University Institute of World Literature and Culture.

Gain imagination and innovation from the differences of different cultural civilizations

  Martin Puchner

  Byron and anita Wayne are professors of drama literature, English literature and comparative literature at Harvard University.

Gain imagination and innovation from the differences of different cultural civilizations

  Laurent de Boriai

  Life-long senior professor of French literature, French literature and comparative literature at Cornell University, winner of the French Palm Leaf Academic Knight Order.

  Advantages and Disadvantages of Online Education and the Core of University Education

  Laurent de Boliai:Optimists may think that the epidemic will provide an unexpected opportunity for the expansion of "global consciousness"-because we are all likely to be affected by a common threat, this crisis may bring a new sense of interconnection. But this is not entirely the case. For example, we can see that there has been some kind of localism turn or self-preservation retreat at the two levels of ideological tendency and daily behavior. Some changes can be positive, such as the emergence of a new experimental community life mutual help and self-help model; Some are variations of chauvinism, such as "exceptionalism" and "supremacy". Broadly speaking, as more and more of our thoughts are uploaded to the global network, the homogenization and standardization of individuals and their behaviors have reached the peak at all levels. Numbers seem to be ruling the way we communicate, express our emotions and express our opinions, and the way is often the content.

  The core driving force of modern university education is academic creation, that is, to enhance the dual ability of connecting the past and building the future through intellectual creativity. This goal mechanizes and standardizes spiritual life, makes mental thinking inertial and procedural, and explains the ever-changing life with ready-made or simple reasons, which is opposite. All these phenomena and problems are aggravated by the isolation of many countries in response to the COVID-19 epidemic. As a university professor, my primary task at present is to protect the space necessary for creative thinking in the face of the challenge that the time required for human beings to realize education and creativity may be shortened, and to constantly make new and effective explanations.

Gain imagination and innovation from the differences of different cultural civilizations

  On October 21st, in Frankfurt, a visitor (left) communicated with a staff member of the joint booth of "China Publishing" in the China book exhibition area of Frankfurt Book Fair. Xinhua news agency

  Martin Puchner:Since the outbreak, we have continued to use zoom and similar video teaching platforms intensively, and now we are all tired. But obviously, online education has been greatly promoted. I joined a school-wide working group to think about the future of education. At present, we have put forward some quite ambitious plans, including creating a complete digital campus. There is a huge demand for high-quality education all over the world. I think this is an opportunity. Elite universities like Tsinghua and Harvard can educate more students than at present. This makes me very excited about the future of education. We have a good understanding of what works and what doesn’t work in online education. Now we can sum up the previous experience and lessons and design some really effective methods.

  Yan Haiping:How not to make online courses an easy version of information dissemination is an important issue. Online teaching is not massive open online course, but real teaching and learning through cloud classroom. This puts forward new requirements for the humanistic use of technology, including the active grasp of technology, the ability of creative integration and the scientific cognitive spirit full of humanistic imagination. I once listened in on Mr. Tsinghua’s class online and was very inspired. For example, a teacher who teaches Shakespeare’s plays skillfully uses all media, such as text marking, poem recitation, scene performance, montage of visual materials, and interactive teaching and learning between teachers and students, thus teaching a three-dimensional Shakespeare and his world. As for the negative impact of the epidemic, there is no need to avoid it. Face-to-face discussion in physics class and the life style of knowledge community on campus contain the wisdom crystallization of civilization renewal and extension in the long history of mankind, which is irreplaceable by various technological revolution means including online teaching.

  Great changes in education in the digital trend and the significance of humanities

  Laurent de Boliai:We need to pay attention to the problems caused by the impact of new technologies, which may narrow our thinking range instead of opening up a broader space for human innovative thinking. The production mechanism of digital media has actually instilled in us a specific content, that is, under the logic of capital operation, under the guidance of market profit rules and operating procedures, providing "content options" that look constantly changing but are actually homogeneous. Our thinking and even our minds are also limited by "instant messaging" based on the Internet, and everything is programmed under the information pressure brought by the accelerated capital flow. This rapid change of procedure and so-called activity is a kind of interference, even a loss, for any human ideological activity that needs long-term attention and dedicated analysis.

  In this regard, we need: first, to create a spiritual space for learning ideas, whose attributes and logic are different from the "capital flow" centered on immediate response program operation; Second, liberating humanities and education itself from being bound by technological operation and its efficiency logic is not against the scientific revolution-technology is not equal to science, but truly embraces the scientific spirit itself and forms an alliance with science, scientificity and revolutionary creativity as science; Third, adhere to the diverse connections and differences across time, space and environment in the life world.

  Martin Puchner:I agree with the indispensability of humanities in the great changes of education. It is a great pity that the humanities hardly played any role in the future education Committee and working group I participated in. In short, part of the reason is related to misunderstanding. For example, it is believed that humanities degrees can not bring good career opportunities and life prospects to young people, although there are convincing statistics showing that this is not the case. Part of the reason is related to conservatism within the humanities, which leads humanities scholars to intuitively and habitually reject new technologies and other innovations. Part of the reason is related to the fine division of majors. At least in the United States, many courses taught by humanities scholars are designed for future majors in humanities and even literature, rather than benefiting the overall development of a wider student group and knowledge community. These problems existed before the emergence of online education, indicating that the humanities are now in a structurally weak position. At the critical historical turning point of the current development of higher education, this will bring many long-term regrets, because humanities can and must play an extremely important role. From what I have heard, there is no similar weakness in the humanities in China.

Gain imagination and innovation from the differences of different cultural civilizations

  On October 14th, the audience took selfies at the China Silk Embroidery Exhibition at the Nazem Khikmet Cultural Center in Ankara. Xinhua news agency

  Yan Haiping:Chinese’s literature is a part of the world’s humanistic literature. Like the academic circles in other countries, it faces many common challenges and opportunities in the great changes. In 2016, we initiated and jointly established the "China-UK Higher Education Humanities Alliance" with major Chinese and British universities including Peking University, Fudan University, Cambridge and Oxford. We propose that economic globalization, which is increasingly driven by digital media and technological revolution, as another stage in the long-term changes in modern times, is changing the face of the world that spans all countries and regions and is shared by mankind. In the great changes, everything in the world is closely linked, so the differences are fully revealed. In order to achieve sustainable development, humanities academic and humanities education, which focuses on cross-cultural knowledge production, communication and innovation, has a clearer historical function and important significance. This is the consensus basis for the sustainable development of the alliance so far.

  All kinds of tensions and frictions in the global epidemic have confirmed the historical situation that human society is closely linked in profound differences. This situation is still accelerating, and the variables produced by scientific and technological changes in the next 30 years will exceed the sum of variables produced by scientific and technological changes since modern times. No matter how innovative science and technology are and how powerful the economy is in the era of globalization, the way in which it is related to human individuals, communities, nationalities, regions and different types of countries is particularly important. No country, region, population or individual can unilaterally cope with such great changes and reconnection in great changes, and multilateral cross-cultural humanities exchanges and cooperation are more urgent than ever.

  In the concrete cross-cultural communication, we discuss how to grasp the concrete experience full of differences, melt the human knowledge that can be shared, and contribute to the world by explaining the world to describe China and describing China in the spirit of "humanity is new" in today’s world context composed of thousands of languages and their relationships. This is the theoretical origin of Tsinghua University’s establishment of the Institute of World Literature and Culture in 2016 to complete the organizational reform of foreign languages and literature departments. The term "world literature and culture" here can include, but not refer to, an established major, but point to a vision of cultural intercommunication and mutual learning of civilizations, so as to help us update our methods and fields in education, reading and academic work, hoping to leave an intellectual labor in the human welfare of "harmony and symbiosis" and "beauty and beauty".

  What is needed in today’s world is exchange and cooperation rather than homogenization.

  Martin Puchner:More exchanges and cooperation between countries and nations have always been extremely necessary and beneficial, and there will never be an end, and there will never be a day of satisfaction. At the same time, I often overestimate the power of communication and cooperation. Before the First World War, the world had achieved a considerable degree of economic globalization, but it was followed by a period of intensified and intensified narrow nationalism, including the two world wars that eventually led to it. Therefore, efforts such as international exchange, cultural communication and educational cooperation cannot solve all the problems in the human world by themselves. However, such efforts play an important role, especially in today’s world with multiple power centers, competition between different blocks and coexistence of different political systems. For example, the current tension or friction between China and the United States does not make me think that we should reduce exchanges and cooperation. On the contrary, this is the moment when we need to strengthen exchanges and cooperation more.

  Laurent de Boliai:Theoretically, it seems that people today can easily establish contact with many different interlocutors. However, how do you choose the person you contact? How to talk, talk and even cooperate with them? In practice, the ready-made convenience of communication channels does not automatically mean that we have more space to meet others and gain new life experiences from them. There is often such a phenomenon, that is, such digital channels constitute many small groups "like us", which are clustered together in a homogeneous way, rather than gaining new experiences and growth from cultural diversity.

  For example, the "identity politics" in the United States, based on skin color, race, gender, etc., brings "the same people" together. The paradox is that holding a group in this way actually compresses rather than expands people’s imagination, mental world and emotional friendship. There will be communication in groups that are identity-centered or focus on the intersection of several identities, but it is difficult to have a "dialogue", that is, it is difficult to gain new experiences that break through their own limitations and gain the ability to change by absorbing new experiences. At present, one of our goals should be to strengthen meaningful dialogue with different people, so as to protect the life world with creativity and rich possibilities.

  Yan Haiping:The old China saying "Beauty and Beauty Together" and "Harmony and Symbiosis" I mentioned earlier carries the life information and wisdom of human beings in the long association. Humanistic research and education, which focus on cross-cultural communication and cooperation and innovation, is one of the contemporary knowledge carriers to inherit this information and wisdom, and one of the paths for different countries, nationalities, groups and individuals to learn from each other and update each other. Since the Peace Treaty of Westphalia in the 17th century, the geopolitics of modern nation-state originated in Europe and its hierarchical and balance-of-power logic dominated by power have had a profound and long-term influence on shaping the world pattern and its cultural concepts, including the established mode of taking nation-state as the category of knowledge production organization and its inertia limitations. After World War II, the field of comparative literature and a series of related interdisciplinary knowledge frontiers generated and developed in Europe and America are some intellectual reflections and cultural breakthroughs on the limitations of this established model.

  As far as my personal experience is concerned, comparative literature, transnational differences, cross-cultural subject innovation and talent training in the United States are mainly composed of English, French, German and Spanish. In Tsinghua University, where I teach, Tsinghua’s humanities and Tsinghua’s culture, as one of the sources of China’s pioneering and developing humanities since modern times, have been characterized by innovative ideas and study methods across languages, cultures and civilizations from the beginning, which always contain inquiries about geopolitics and the logic of balance of power originating in Europe, and demands for diverse and new ways of modern national and ethnic relations.

  Pay attention to the life world different from "standardization and homogenization"

  Martin Puchner:The cross-cultural development of humanities faces many difficulties. At least in most colleges and universities in the United States, it is still the basic status quo to use the unitary nation-state as the cognitive framework of discipline organization to produce knowledge. In my opinion, this is the main problem. Reorganizing the structural layout of departments, updating the requirements of professional competence, changing the evaluation and examination methods, etc., need many conditions to support, and the change is really not easy. As far as my limited understanding is concerned, the world literature class established by Tsinghua University World Literature Institute and Foreign Languages Department is an important example. As far as the general conditions of colleges and universities are concerned, perhaps these changes will not happen until other conditions are in place, partly because humanists often insist on maintaining the inertial knowledge system, at least in the United States. A paradox that puzzles me is that many humanists consider themselves pioneers of social change, but when it comes to their own cognitive composition and production methods, they are often conservative. A major methodological change that is taking place in the humanities is the digital humanities. It was over-hyped at the beginning, which led to a predictable rebound, but in the medium and long term, interesting changes in humanistic methods may come from this corner.

  Back to the cross-cultural perspective. I sometimes wonder whether the question also includes the dimension of "scale". A large society tends to be more conservative, narrow-minded and self-centered than a small society. Of course, scale is not the only important element, but I am more and more inclined to think that scale is an important factor. This means that a huge society like ours must make special efforts to enable students to gain their much-needed international vision and ability.

  Laurent de Boliai:I am very willing to study very different languages, texts, behaviors and thinking logic with students, and feel very rewarding. We should encourage the younger generation to have a careful understanding of the inherent multi-faceted tensions and subtle differences in various languages, texts, ways of behavior and thinking logic, as well as the productive nature of these tensions and differences. In other words, we attach importance to the life world different from "standardization and homogenization", and we attach importance to the humanistic meaning of the life world, because we think it is more imaginative, rich and innovative than the standardized and homogenized culture. Between the speculative form of humanistic exploration and the limitless science and technology, we should re-establish a dynamic relationship. Scientific and technological innovation is the main driving force of today’s global society, and science and technology have never developed in isolation. The development of science and technology is the development of people’s life world, and the development of people’s mutual relationship, that is, cross-cultural association. We encourage a new generation of humanities scholars to boldly create, discover, grasp and even invent the interactive and ubiquitous connection between new theories and daily reality.

  Yan Haiping:In a certain sense, humanistic literature is a modern practical process of human wisdom, which melts the life experience that is unrepeatable from generation to generation into value knowledge that can be used for reference and reconstruction from generation to generation, and supports, broadens and enhances the connotation and quality of life.

  At the same time, the proposal of cross-cultural academic and educational theory stems from the internal needs of each of us how to settle down in today’s world. The correlation and cognitive integration of cross-language families and cross-cultural civilizations have been practiced, experienced and called by generations of scholars in China and the world since modern times. Its productive power is particularly prominent in the period of historical change. Social individuals and groups born in different language families and cultural civilizations have transcended the limitations of established habits, inspired each other and updated each other in the consciousness of differences, forming an indispensable life experience and an imaginative time and space full of kinetic energy in modern times; For the development of cross-cultural humanities and humanities education, it provides a profound resource for knowledge innovation. I quite agree that this kind of knowledge production needs the basic support of production mechanism and a moderate fit with the social environment, which is possible and sustainable.

  Human culture has been learning from each other and innovating.

  Martin Puchner:When trying to understand the cultural evolution on a global scale for thousands of years, I was shocked by two things. The first thing is that cultures have been learning from each other from the beginning. For example, China borrowed Buddhism from India, while Japan borrowed Buddhism from China, and Europe borrowed Christianity from the Middle East. Sometimes, the borrowing of these series includes strange gaps and circuitous ways. For example, ancient Greek philosophy was forgotten in Europe, but it was preserved in Baghdad before being re-imported into Europe. It is also interesting that Rome decided to translate the whole Greek literary classics into Latin for no reason, and turned Greek into its ancestors, even though the Romans had no connection with Greece. Therefore, this is a confusing picture. Sometimes, cultural imports are imposed on conquered countries. But more often, these imports and exports do not follow clear boundaries of power. More often, the borrowing of culture is not a sign of the weak, but a sign of the strong.

  Another impressive thing is that in each case, cultural borrowing is part of an incredible creative adaptation process, leading to a striking new cultural form. When Rome borrowed Greek canon, it created something completely new. Learning from something seems to release creative energy.

Gain imagination and innovation from the differences of different cultural civilizations

  On November 10th, a Rwandan student tried on China’s clothes. On the same day, the activity of "China Culture Entering the Campus" was held in the School of Education of Rwandan University. Xinhua news agency

  These two points lead me to the conclusion that reducing cultural exchanges will mean reducing all the factors that make culture flourish. At the same time, more exchanges and mutual learning may bring about various creative absorption and adaptation processes, which in turn will lead to the formation of a specific integrated new culture. If so, I think it’s good; Otherwise, the world of life will become monotonous and boring.

  Laurent de Boliai:As a species in the sense of zoology, Homo sapiens also depends on countless other biological species and different beings, and we really depend on everything. Of course, this does not mean global convergence and standardization. On the contrary, recognizing that human beings are connected with other diverse worlds of time and space will lead to a series of meaning extensions. On the one hand, this means a firmer view that every living thing and existence on earth is intrinsically related to us. On the other hand, it is a hope to maintain the rich heterogeneity in the world. Just because everything shares a planet, the difference between everything is the embodiment and vitality of coexistence. On the other hand, "cross-culture" transcends the potential and imagination of human egoism, that is, we not only continue our lives in a variety of different worlds, but also cross, meet, talk, cooperate, imagine and create among these worlds.

  Yan Haiping:This is an era full of challenges and opportunities, which requires courage, conviction and imagination. In recent years, I have been sorting out the Chinese and English texts written in the past decades, and some books and letters about the cultural world in modern times accumulated and reread over the past decades. I keep classifying them by language, time, subject, proposition, etc., and at the same time, I open up another category, and put them on the combined bookshelf with a paragraph sentence, some life information and their explicit or implicit correlation. They cross all kinds of cognitive boundaries established by habits, and form a constellation group that is irreducible but inseparable from each other, calling, arguing and enlightening each other in the form of multiple polyphony. My duty is to listen to and record the endless human conversations.

  (Translation: Ran Haoyan, Zhang Hanwen)

  Guangming Daily (November 28, 2021, 08 edition)

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After the end of the era of "negative interest rate", the situation behind the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike has changed.

Source: Business School Magazine

Although China’s financial industry is confident to cope with the policy shock caused by the Bank of Japan’s turn, China’s financial institutions must take precautions, adhere to the principle of macro-prudence, and accelerate their business and digital transformation.

Text | Yan Jiajia Shi Dan

ID | BMR2004

The "boots" for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates for half a year finally ended on March 19th this year. The Bank of Japan announced that it would raise the benchmark interest rate from -0.1% to 0~0.1%, and at the same time cancel the yield curve control (YCC) policy. Realized the first rate hike in Japan’s macro-monetary policy in 17 years, ending "Abenomics"Eight years of negative interest rates.

The world’s three major central banks (Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan) have finally achieved nominal unification of interest rate policy direction (interest rate increase) after the US subprime mortgage crisis. At present, the world’s major economies, only China is in the stage of interest rate cuts. This also reminds China’s financial industry that it must be fully prepared and carefully handle the policy fluctuations of the three major central banks in the world, so as to maintain the prosperity and stability of China’s financial market, the internationalization of the RMB system and the stability of the RMB exchange rate.

So, what are the considerations for Japan to raise interest rates this time? What impact will Japan’s interest rate hike have? What is the future trend? How is it related to the upcoming shift of the Fed’s monetary policy? For China’s financial market, what should be the focus of Japanese interest rate hike?

01

Driving factors of Japan’s monetary policy shift

Japan’s low interest rate policy has been maintained for 25 years. As early as 1998, Japan’s interest rate fell to 0.25%, but it has not yet fallen to zero and negative interest rates.

"Japan’s long-term failure to raise interest rates can be traced back to 40 years ago. In the early 1980s, the bilateral trade friction between Japan and the United States continued to intensify, and the trade war gradually escalated into a currency war. The United States, Japan and other countries signed the famous Plaza Agreement, which triggered a sharp appreciation of the yen and accompanied by the rapid expansion of asset prices, which also led to the bursting of Japan’s bubble economy, which in turn triggered a sluggish domestic economy in Japan. At first, the Bank of Japan implemented a zero interest rate policy. By the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe came to power for the second time and began to implement the "Abenomics". Since then, the Bank of Japan has implemented a negative interest rate policy, which is known as the "different-dimensional" monetary policy. In other words, private banks in Japan have to deposit money with the Bank of Japan, not only without interest, but also with management fees. This is enough to show that the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan want to stimulate economic growth through active financial easing policies. " Dr. Dou Shaojie, a researcher at the Global HRM Research Center of Waseda University in Japan and a researcher at the SME Management Research Center of Tongshe University, told the reporter of Business School.

Chen Jia, an independent international strategy researcher and former researcher at the International Monetary Institute of Renmin University of China, said, "Before Shinzo Abe took office and began to focus on promoting the’ Abenomics’, Japan had been trapped in the’ lost decade’: the population was aging and the young people were flat; Weak investment in the real economy, low efficiency of enterprises and stall of scientific and technological innovation; Repeated shocks of the yen, rampant cross-border arbitrage, etc. Although previous Japanese prime ministers saw the problem, their targeted strategies were ineffective and were repeatedly bounced back by public opinion, which led to giving up halfway. Since Shinzo Abe took office, he has drastically implemented reform measures in the financial and social fields, especially the implementation of the’ Abenomics’ in macro-financial and monetary policies, aiming at vigorously stimulating Japan’s deep economic fundamentals. "

Gu Qinhua, a member of the North American Doctor of Laws Club, once worked in a Jewish international law firm as a cross-border transaction and investment consultant and lawyer, told the reporter of Business School that Japan has been in a low interest rate or even negative interest rate environment, with the aim of jumping out of the middle income trap. The government has adopted a monetary policy to continuously stimulate the economy, in which the negative interest rate policy is to make the funds not be deposited in the bank, but become idle funds. Not only Japan, Europe, the United States and other countries have also implemented negative interest rate policies, which is the performance of loose monetary policy to the extreme. Abe’s "Three arrows"(monetary easing, fiscal policy and growth strategy), through the way of" helicopter money ",that is, during the economic depression, through the maximum easing policy to stimulate the economy.

Since 1989, Japan has raised interest rates five times in a row in order to curb the rising real estate prices and economic inflation in Japan at that time. However, the consequence was that the "hot money" that poured into Japan was evacuated one after another, and the bubbles in Japan’s stock market and property market burst, and it was not recovered until the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2007. From a macro perspective, after Japan’s economic bubble burst in the 1990s, it fell into a typical ".middle income trap"At the same time, the Great Depression appeared in political economy, and the phenomenon called deflation appeared in the development of national economy. As a result, Japan has made up its mind to solve the problems of economic depression, overcapacity and deflation that are easy to occur in the middle-income trap.

Gu Qinhua believes that there are three steps to solve the "middle income trap" globally. The first step is to let companies and individuals with overcapacity and debts jump out of the "trap" and enter a promising foreign market. If these enterprises toss in the "trap", they will only get deeper and deeper. The way for Japan to get rid of the trap of depression, deflation and middle income is to jump out of the Japanese market and play a role in other markets full of opportunities. Take Toyota Motor Corporation of Japan as an example, its overseas output is rising steadily, which is about twice the domestic production value. It is not difficult to understand that building a car overseas requires huge amounts of money, and Japan’s loose monetary policy can allow huge amounts of money to support Japanese companies to go to sea. Enterprises that make money can continue to feed back the country and pay off debts.

The second step is to clear the sludge caused by debt in the "trap". The third step is to spend huge sums of money to directionally polish and cultivate more promising and competitive new products and fields. Any one of these steps can not be separated from the stimulus and support of the government’s massive cheap funds. The nature of capital and capitalist is profit-seeking, and the cheap yen gave birth to the yen carry trade. This kind of transaction using spread arbitrage is not a major means for financial products to jump out of the "trap" and enter other markets to make money.

Judging from the actual use of cheap yen, the proportion of foreigners borrowing money in Japan and investing overseas in places with higher interest rates is relatively small. Most of the funds were used by the Japanese in three aspects: on the one hand, overseas expansion. Toyota and other auto companies go to sea and even invest in American technology companies and new markets (such as China); The second aspect is to invest in the largest foreign exchange market. For example, there is a powerful force in the foreign exchange market called "Mrs. Watanabe". In Japan, men earn money, and women do housework at home. Over time, women begin to take charge of financial power. This special group of people is a fresh force in the foreign exchange market, and they hold a lot of dollars and other currencies. Foreign exchange trading has given birth to Japan’s great progress in computer, quantitative trading software, High-Frequency Trading (HFT), communication, artificial intelligence and artificial intelligence industries. The third aspect is overseas investors. Mainly American investors and hedge funds, but also some European and Asian investors, such as the interest rate increase of the Japanese yen, will have an impact on the property market, stock market, foreign exchange market and bond market in China Mainland and Hongkong.

Japanese investment banks are the main force in the financing of China’s state-owned enterprises and private enterprises. For example, Softbank has invested in many high-tech enterprises in China. These investments come not only from project financing and equity financing, but also from the Japanese government, various financial institutions and investors. However, Softbank may have recovered its capital out of pressure (transferring its shares and replacing them with Japanese yen to pay its debts).

It is worth noting that Japan’s low interest rate policy of not raising interest rates for a long time came to an end because of two kinds of pressures.

The first pressure comes from inflation. Japan’s financial sector has achieved the rise of its balance sheet after years of "struggling for a living". Japan cleared its debts in the 1990s, and the economy began to brew new momentum. Japan’s inflation used to be imported inflation. Now wages and stock market are rising, and the inflation rate is also rising. Therefore, both the traditional financial school and the post-financial school believe that the monetary interest rate should be normalized. Otherwise, the Bank of Japan, the core management institution of the government, will fail in its important position of regulating the effective, orderly and organic development of the domestic economy through monetary policy.

The level of inflation tolerated by Japan’s domestic economy, like the United States and European countries, is basically set at around 2%. If the actual inflation rate in Japan far exceeds 2%, then wages, labor insurance and welfare for the elderly should be adjusted and increased according to the inflation rate. Once inflation goes up, the pressure on government spending will increase significantly. Coupled with the severe aging of Japan’s population, most of Japan’s fiscal expenditure is spent on the elderly, so the ideal state is no inflation and no need to increase expenditure. If there is inflation, we must adjust the welfare of the elderly. In the past, Japan did not raise interest rates because most of the previous inflation was external.Imported inflationIt is not caused by internal reasons, but now that internal inflation is rising, the central bank has to raise interest rates.

So is America. Since the beginning of 2022, the United States has experienced a high level of inflation, which is caused by global supply chain problems, rising energy prices and tight labor market caused by the COVID-19 epidemic. In this case, the Federal Reserve has taken measures to raise interest rates to curb inflation and maintain economic stability. The purpose of raising interest rates is to reduce aggregate demand by raising borrowing costs and reducing consumption expenditure and investment, thus curbing inflation. Even if the national debt of the United States has reached $35 trillion, the interest rate on the debt will be very heavy after the interest rate increase, but the Fed has to raise interest rates, because fighting inflation is the first task of the Fed.

The second pressure comes from the currency appreciation caused by the trade surplus. Due to the great progress of Japan’s manufacturing capacity, foreign trade products and services and the long-term trade surplus, it will certainly be intimidated by other countries’ demands for currency appreciation. Just like the background of the Plaza Accord, countries forced the yen to appreciate rapidly through the Plaza Accord, because at that time, the United States and European countries all had pressure on Japan’s trade deficit.

Without the pressure of domestic inflation and trade surplus, the Japanese government is willing to keep easing, which is a big move for it to jump out of the middle-income trap.

Dou Shaojie said that at that time, "Abenomics" wanted to achieve the recovery and development of the Japanese economy, and set several indicators, the most important of which was the price index, which rose by 2% every year. But in fact, despite the Japanese government’s efforts, this 2% target has not been achieved until the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic.

This move by the Bank of Japan actually confirmed two indexes. One is that the price index has risen by 2% for two consecutive years, and the second index is that the wage increase rate has reached 5%. However, among these two indexes, the first price index has indeed achieved a 2% increase for two consecutive years, but whether the second index has really been achieved remains to be discussed. Because the wage increase rate of large Japanese enterprises did achieve a 5.2% increase for the first time in the "Spring Fight" in March this year ("Spring Fight" is a national labor-management negotiation held in Japan every spring, which plays a guiding role in the annual wage increase in Japan), but the wage increase rate of small and medium-sized enterprises, which account for 99.7% of the enterprises, has just exceeded 4.5%. Another suspense is whether wage increase and price increase have really achieved a virtuous circle. Because although wages seem to have increased, compared with the price index, the increase rate is not enough, and the real wage growth rate remains at a negative growth level (-0.6%, January 2024), and it has been negative for 22 consecutive months. It can be seen that domestic consumption in Japan has not really developed.

In fact, Kazuo Ueda, the president of the Bank of Japan, resisted Abenomics from the very beginning, and he held different views on the Bank of Japan’s continuous loose monetary policy. When he took over from former president Kuroda in 2023, there were many voices speculating that "will he cancel the negative interest rate monetary policy as soon as he takes office?" From the adjustment effect on March 19th this year, it can be seen that the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike did not cause a sharp drop in the stock market, nor did it cause a large fluctuation in the yen exchange rate. This is obviously the effect that the Bank of Japan "released the wind" in advance and was digested by the market.

Generally speaking, the reason why the Bank of Japan adjusted its monetary policy is that the Japanese economy has achieved a moderate recovery on the one hand, and wages have risen moderately on the other. The adjustment of monetary policy is to make the virtuous circle between wages and prices more stable. On January 23, 2024, the Outlook on Economic and Price Situation issued by the Bank of Japan pointed out that the growth rate of women and the elderly participating in labor slowed down, the supply and demand of labor was further tense, and the pressure of wage increase would increase.

From the perspective of the supply side, women and the elderly have participated in the labor market in the past 10 years or so. These labors have increased supply and demand, and as a result, wages have not risen. At present, the growth rate of women’s and the elderly’s participation in labor is slowing down, and their wages are facing upward pressure. Just like migrant workers in China go to cities, the hourly wages of inexhaustible migrant workers will be very low, and the wages will rise rapidly when there is a shortage of migrant workers. This will bring the pressure of rising labor costs in terms of cost, and at the same time help to increase the purchasing power of families. At present, the Japanese government believes that it can withdraw from the negative interest rate and YCC policy and realize a virtuous circle of wages and prices.

02

Global monetary and financial markets may fluctuate.

Chen Jia said that as we all know, the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy, especially interest rate decision, followed the Fed for a long time after World War II, which is the famous phenomenon of "three central banks strike one blow and three earthquakes" in the global monetary history that we have observed in the past 40 years, that is, as long as the Fed raises interest rates, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank always "resonate at the same frequency". However, over the past year or so, the Federal Reserve has taken the initiative to raise interest rates in order to control the ultra-high inflation in the United States. In the same period, among the three major central banks in the world, only the European Central Bank maintained the general direction of following the Fed’s monetary policy for its own purpose of suppressing high inflation. Limited by its stagflation and Abenomics orientation, the Bank of Japan "parted ways" with the Federal Reserve for the first time in decades.

Focusing on more than a year before the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, the United States and Europe raised interest rates and China and Japan cut interest rates, which are the fundamentals of global macro-money. Most global financial centers with the US dollar system as the main trading system generally have high market interest rates, which leads to the widening gap between the benchmark interest rates in the offshore and onshore markets of China financial markets, and the benchmark interest rate in the offshore RMB market is generally higher than that in the mainland.RMB benchmark interest rateLooking back, the recent difference between offshore RMB and onshore RMB in deposit interest rate has become increasingly prominent, which is essentially a realistic response to the huge gap between the major central banks in the world in the direction of monetary policy.

Less than a year after the tentative introduction of YCC deregulation, the Bank of Japan finally returned to raise interest rates in line with global market expectations. On the surface, the "post-Kuroda era" policy changed course and followed the Fed again, but in fact, the top design core of Japan’s monetary policy has never changed. Once the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the Bank of Japan, the Japanese yen and Japanese bonds are likely to become a major source of fluctuations in the global monetary and financial markets in the future.

From the analysis of market data, there have been frequent chaos in the global currency and financial markets recently; The prices of non-interest-bearing assets have rocketed, and gold has fluctuated at a high price; Encrypted assets such as Bitcoin have been dormant for three years and then soared to historical highs again. Behind all this is the decline in the yield of interest-bearing assets relative to non-interest-bearing assets caused by the uncertainty of global monetary policy.

Under the condition that the market is so turbulent, the Bank of Japan can only try its best to maintain the stability of bond operations and prevent the Japanese yen hot money in the global financial market from using the Bank of Japan’s policy steering again for policy arbitrage. This is not only the main reason why the Bank of Japan indicated that it would make long-term efforts to maintain the balance between the volume and price of its bond purchases after it turned to raising interest rates, but also the fundamental reason why the yen exchange rate in the global market fell instead of rising.

03

Choice of the pace of Japan’s interest rate hike in the future

Chen Jia said that neither the economic base nor the superstructure in Japan has the objective conditions to tighten monetary policy quickly in the short term. Excessive interest rate hikes only increase the feasibility of international financial market arbitrageurs to increase their holdings of yen-denominated assets in the short term, which has spawned a Japanese stock market bubble. From the analysis of the benchmark of the fundamental operation of the central bank, the necessary conditions for the Bank of Japan to really have the opportunity to enter the interest rate hike channel must be based on the camera choice in the macro-economy of Japan, the return of the yield curve to normal, the expected high core inflation rate, and the majority support of opinion polls for interest rate hikes.

Gu Qinhua said that due to geopolitical reasons, Japan’s interest rate hike may have an interaction with the US interest rate cut. When the US starts to cut interest rates, Japan will raise interest rates. When the United States is not healthy, Japan will add very little or even nothing. There is no need to guess the timing of the Fed’s interest rate cut. It must be one of the following two opportunities: the first is that the inflation rate has been below 3% for many times in a row. If it is below 3%, it is still possible to revive, and it is easy to jump above 5%. The second is the financial crisis, such as bank failures and mass unemployment. The mass unemployment is due to the high cost, the business owners can’t afford to hire too many people, and they don’t have the funds to expand reproduction, so there will be a large number of layoffs, which is a sign of economic downturn. Another sign is the debt crisis, bank failures and so on. After the above situation occurs, the Fed will definitely cut interest rates.

Gu Qinhua believes that the yen’s interest rate hike will put two conditions on the United States. The first is to lift the restrictions imposed by the United States on the increase of Japanese military spending after World War II, so that it can have the ability to protect its own achievements, not just the self-defense forces, but also its own army. In the meantime, the United States should strengthen its protection and transfer of armament technology. The second condition is not to interfere too much with Japan’s foreign trade surplus. Japan should organize a new Asian trade circle excluding China, and Japan’s trade volume should be weighted and averaged throughout the new trade circle. The United States cannot count the trade volume generated by Japanese enterprises established in the United States, which mainly recruit American employees, as Japan’s total foreign trade with the United States.

Every central bank’s interest rate hike is a process of returning capital. For example, money placed in American banks has a 5% interest rate, while Japan only has a zero interest rate or even a negative interest rate. If you deposit a certain amount of money, you have to pay management fees. Everyone will definitely want to deposit money in American banks, plus the Japanese yen and the US dollar can be freely exchanged without restrictions.

The reason for currency depreciation is that it is thrown a lot. Like stocks, if someone throws it, it will fall. Therefore, the depreciation of the yen is also due to the government’s issuance of additional currency, which continues to stimulate the economy. Because the yen arbitrage transactions are frequent, for example, the "Mrs. Watanabe" group does foreign exchange transactions, people can’t let the yen stay in the process of trading forever, and it needs to be landed. It is definitely the best to land in US dollars, and the US dollar is deposited in the bank with interest. As soon as the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, the cost of borrowing will increase, and the money will naturally flow back to Japan to repay the principal and interest and feed back the suzerain country.

Dou Shaojie believes that this move of the Bank of Japan can be said to be "the first step of the Long March", that is, from the abnormal state of "different dimensions" to the normal state, but what will happen afterwards, considering the interests of all parties, especially the reality of the Japanese government, it is estimated that the Bank of Japan will not take too radical measures.

After all, the Bank of Japan has been buying Japanese government bonds through YCC for a long time. By the end of 2023, the Bank of Japan held about 53.7% of Japanese government bonds, so the biggest creditor of the Japanese government is the Bank of Japan. If you borrow money, you have to pay it back, and you need to pay interest. In 2023, the debt interest that the Japanese government needs to pay is 8.5 trillion yen, accounting for about 1.4% of Japan’s annual GDP. If the Bank of Japan continues to raise interest rates at this time, the interest expenses that the Japanese government needs to bear will increase. The Japanese government, whose finances are already tight, is even more difficult, and may even raise the consumption tax again. Therefore, the Bank of Japan will also take a very cautious attitude towards the increase of interest rates. However, it is also very difficult for the central bank. If interest rates are not raised properly, from the perspective of foreign investors, Japanese interest rates will not be raised, and the yen may depreciate further.

04

Warning and Response to China

In Gu Qinhua’s view, monetary policy has two sides, both favorable and unfavorable, and every country is trying to avoid disadvantages as much as possible.

For example, one of the benefits of cutting interest rates is that it can reduce the burden on investors and the deficits of local governments, enterprises and ordinary people, but it will also be accompanied by concerns about the outflow of money, because money is as pervasive as water and difficult to stop.

For another example, lowering the deposit reserve ratio has both advantages and disadvantages. The advantage is to release liquidity and reduce it by 0.5 percentage point, which may create the effect of 1 trillion cash. Because banks have more money, they can support more repeated loans. However, the first disadvantage is that it creates an illusion of abundant funds and rising deposit interest rates. Although it seems to improve liquidity on the surface, it makes the amount of social financing and the deposits of ordinary people rise. In fact, the money is just idling inside the bank. When idling, there will be a problem. Assets that do not create assets are liabilities. This is also a very important point in monetary finance: no matter how big or abundant an asset is, it is defined as a liability if it cannot bring benefits.

The second disadvantage of interest rate cuts is that there are many "thunderbolts" now. The deposit reserve was originally one of the important tools for the central bank to cope with the "thunderbolts" of banks. When banks fail to meet their debts, they are used to subsidize depositors. However, if the deposit reserve ratio is low, the scope of protection will be reduced. In addition, it will also make depositors worry. For example, once a large real estate company goes bankrupt, depositors of the bank with the most loans will calculate the risks and may transfer their deposits to other banks, which is also a kind of idling of funds.

The third disadvantage of interest rate reduction is that it falsely creates an increase in social financing and deposits, making it difficult for decision makers to accurately determine the market capital situation.

It is difficult to explain whether banks should raise interest rates or cut interest rates in this complex market situation. Any policy has its internal and external causes, advantages and disadvantages, and needs to be judged and selected. In Gu Qinhua’s view, foreign investors should be gathered at this time, and interest rates should not be cut sharply. Some targeted subsidies can be taken to stabilize foreign funds.

In addition, we should learn from the successful strategies of Japan, South Korea, the United States and other countries to get out of the middle-income trap and seek development in overseas markets with real opportunities. Because the middle-income trap is a hurdle that all economies have to pass in the development process. When the economy develops, people tend to expand, get into debt, artificially push up assets and create some bubbles. These bubbles are not transferred by human will, and eventually there will be a low tide "trap".

Chen Jia said that since the exchange rate reform in 2015, China’s financial system has been optimizing the governance structure of the macro-prudential supervision system, especially in the governance of cross-border financial arbitrage. Although China’s financial industry is confident to cope with the policy shock caused by the Bank of Japan’s turn, China’s financial institutions must take precautions, adhere to the principle of macro-prudence, and accelerate their business and digital transformation. Taking the Bank of Japan as a mirror, it is the advanced realm of macro-prudential supervision system to do all the concrete work to prevent and resolve systemic risks and eliminate major risks invisibly.

Source | Business School Magazine, May 2024

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