The National Day holiday is coming, and the relaxed and happy atmosphere is gradually spreading in China. The people on the other side of the ocean can’t relax, but they are waiting for a crisis to be lifted.
At about 8 pm local time on September 30, the provisional appropriation bill was finally put on Biden’s desk. At this time, from the US government"Close the door"Deadline for, remainingLess than 4 hours..
Signing this bill means that the US governmentTemporarily avoidIn order to avoid the embarrassing situation of "closing the door", hundreds of thousands of federal government workers do not have to face the dilemma of stopping work without pay.
But in fact, this crisis was"manufacturing"Yes. The federal budget could have been passed by a congressional vote, but in order to avoid another crisis that has never happened in the history of the United States for more than 200 years, this bill has become a binding weight:
Before October 18, if the US Congress fails to pass a bill to raise the debt ceiling or suspend its entry into force, then the United States will appear since the founding of the People’s Republic of China.First debt defaultAt that time, the US military will have no salary to pay, nearly 50 million old people’s old-age social security will be suspended, and millions of job opportunities will be lost. Both US stocks and US debt will become a string of worthless figures.
Although the situation is critical, binding has not worked. The provisional appropriation bill was passed, but the debt crisis is still a big thorn in Biden’s government.
Such a debt default risk has already appeared in American history.More than 100 times. Every time, it ended in chaos.
However, this time, can the United States still be surprised? And how long can the United States bear the cost of chaos?
As early as August, the signs of this round of debt chaos have already appeared.
On August 1, the U.S. federal government debt ceiling, which was suspended for two years, came into effect. The next day, the US Treasury began to take emergency measures.Throttle measures, including suspending the payment of government employees’ retirement and medical funds.
At the same time, US Treasury Secretary Yellen wrote three letters to Speaker of the House of Representatives Pelosi in succession, with only one theme:
The US government has no way to continue to sell federal and local government bonds. If the US Congress does not take immediate measures to suspend or raise the US debt ceiling, then the United States will emerge.Default on debt.
△ US Treasury Secretary Yellen said at the hearing of the House Financial Services Committee that she supported the cancellation of the federal debt ceiling, and said that the risk of debt default posed a "very destructive" threat to American confidence and American credit.
Yellen’s wording from"worried"become"in a hurry"Various consequences have been warned more than once. Unfortunately, she is in a hurry and others are not in a hurry.
Senate Republican leader McConnell made it clear that the Republican Party would not support raising the debt ceiling. After McConnell’s statement, 100 Republicans in the House of Representatives also signed a joint letter, promising not to vote to raise the debt ceiling under any circumstances.
△ Senate Republican leader McConnell
Republicans also have good reasons: the United States must not default, but who should make efforts for it depends on who the American people choose in the election.
The implication is obvious. Why should I, the Republican Party, do it for your Democratic Party?"political achievements".
In the face of the impenetrable Republican Party, the Democratic Party has come up with a vicious plan to attach a bill to raise the debt ceiling or suspend its effectiveness to the federal budget that must be passed — — If it doesn’t pass, the US government willstop.
Earlier, the U.S. government had stopped working more than 20 times. A shutdown of the previous government caused an economic loss of $11 billion to the United States. It’s not the first time, but don’t forget, there is an epidemic.
An anonymous government official revealed to the US media that once the government shuts down, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) can only retain a quarter of its nearly 5,000 employees, which is even worse for the United States, which is already short of medical resources.
△ In Houston, USA, emergency personnel rescued COVID-19 patients at home.
Zhao Xijun, co-dean of China Capital Market Research Institute of Renmin University of China, also pointed out the thoughts of the Democratic Party to Tan Zhu:
“
Put pressure on the Republican Party to make it compromise.
"
Reuters’s survey data also show that,thirty percentTwenty-five percent of Americans believe that if the government shuts down, Republicans in Congress should be blamed the most, while only Democrats will be blamed.21%.
But the result of the vote made the Democratic Party stupid: on September 27th, the Senate Republicans rejected the Democratic Party’s bill.
△ US Senate Republican leader McConnell delivered a speech at the press conference
McConnell made it clear directly that we have long seen through the thinking of the Democratic Party. A separate federal budget, supported by Republicans, will not stop the government, but it will be tied together.no way.
The toughness of the Republican Party also surprised the capital market. On the second day after the veto, US stocks fell sharply, and the three major stock indexes, including the Nasdaq index, recorded the biggest one-day decline in the second half of the year.
The Republican Party has not forgotten to point out a "way out" for the Democratic Party — —Exercise the budget adjustment procedure. In this way, a bill that originally needed 60 votes to pass only needed 51 votes.
But this is digging a hole for Biden’s government. Zhao Xijun told Tan Master:
“
Biden put forward the vision of jointly considering the overall interests of the United States during the campaign. He promised that he would comprehensively consider the interests of all parties and even form an atmosphere of negotiation and peaceful coexistence, instead of being as reckless as the previous government.
"
Using the budget adjustment procedure, skipping the Republican Party and forcibly pushing the bill will undoubtedly weaken the political capital of the Biden administration and increase the bipartisanconflict.
In desperation, Rep. Jerry Nadler even put forward this plan at the Democratic Party caucus meeting on Tuesday:
United states mint casts one."value"Trillion dollars of platinum coins, sell it to the Federal Reserve, so that the account of the US Treasury can be more than 1 trillion dollars, that is to say, the US fiscal deficit will be reduced by 1 trillion dollars.
Although the United States Code does give the Ministry of Finance such power, economists have long said that this is only"An accounting trick"It can’t solve people’s concerns about US debt default at all.
In desperation, politiciansConfused tricks come and go.
The only way to solve the problem is in Congress.
But you know, since the Biden administration took office, Republicans have been performing."All against"The drama.
At the beginning of taking office, Biden ambitiously proposed a 1.9 trillion economic stimulus bill. In the House of Representatives, the bill was passed, but the Republicans were not depressed — — None of the 219 votes supported came from Republicans. In the Senate vote 10 days later, as long as the Republicans present, they also opposed it.
Now, seven months later, this situation is in the bill to raise the debt ceiling or suspend it.Play again.
△ On September 29th, Speaker of the House of Representatives Pelosi was interviewed. On the same day, the US House of Representatives passed a bill to suspend the national debt limit until December 16, 2022 by 219 votes to 212 votes.
Pelosi complained that during Trump’s tenure, the two parties in the United States cooperated three times to raise the debt ceiling. But when it was the Democratic Party’s turn to be in power, the Republicans were collectively constrained.
But Pelosi seems to forget that the word "cooperation" in her mouth,"achievement"The longest government shutdown in American history.
At that time, the two parties were deadlocked over the issue of the US-Mexico border separation wall. When the Democratic Party successfully took control of the House of Representatives in the mid-term elections, all bills that included funds requested by Trump were firmly opposed. This eventually led to a 35-day shutdown of the US government.
△ US-Mexico border
Liu Weidong, a researcher at the American Institute of China Academy of Social Sciences, told Tan Zhu:
“
Now the polarization between the two parties is getting worse and worse, and there is no obvious sign of return. The two sides are unwilling to compromise, and the result is a political deadlock.
"
Francis Fukuyama, a well-known American political scholar, also mentioned in one of his articles that confrontation led to the stagnation of the political operation in the United States and the whole country became one.victim.
Is the Republican Party really not afraid of the United States stopping? McConnell revealed that he played the game of constraint"emboldened"Even if all Republicans oppose raising the debt ceiling, the United States will not default, and the Democratic Party will certainly try its best to do it.
△ Senate Democratic Leader Schumer
Because America always does this.
Since the United States adopted the debt ceiling model in 1939, the ceiling has been raised.107 times. No matter how the two parties in the process"Kick the ball"From the results, it is true that the US debt is not allowed to default in name.
But always dancing on the edge of the cliff, people are interested in America"slip"Concerns are also growing.
In 2011, on the last day of default, the US Congress passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling. Standard & Poor’s, a financial analysis institution, downgraded the credit rating of the United States for the first time in history. As soon as the news came out, global stock markets fell and suffered "Black Monday".
Standard & Poor’s believes that the risk has been going on, and the decision-making and political institutions in the United States"Effectiveness, Stability and Predictability"Has weakened.
Two years later, the United States once again fell into the same double crisis of government shutdown and debt default risk. At that time, US President Barack Obama said with emotion, "We must get rid of the habit of governing the country with crisis." In the 16 days before that default, the government had been closed because of the risk of debt default, and the daily loss in the United States reached $1.5 billion.
Before the last minute, the American political system seems to be reckless, almostOperation failure.
Obviously, Yellen, who served as the chairman of the Federal Reserve in the Obama administration, also recalled the previous dilemma. She warned Congress many times, but the final result showed that it didn’t help.
Crisis after crisis, wave after wave of risks and negative emotions have also spread among the American people.
You know, Biden is the president-elect who broke the record of votes for the presidential candidate in the US general election, and the people have great expectations for him. But now, Gallup poll shows that since August, the economic confidence index has been negative and has been declining.
Republicans, on the current economic situation and future economic prospects are rated.worsen.
Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, pointed out the fundamental logic behind the failure of the two parties to reach a consensus — — It is not so much a difference in fundamental ideas as it is "As long as the enemy agrees, I will oppose it. "And vowed to block Biden’s administration to the end.
Nowadays, both parties are involved.
Zhong Zhengsheng also agrees with Tan Zhu, who thinks:
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In essence, the high government debt is caused by the long-term imbalance of fiscal revenue and expenditure and the slowdown of economic growth, and it is not the sole responsibility of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party.
"
After the COVID-19 outbreak, the cooperation between the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury also boosted the rapid expansion of U.S. government debt. In other words, the Trump administration’s tax cuts in 2020 and the Biden administration’s "throwing money" in 2021 all have this."contribution".
However, the emergence of a pair of "enemies" is not good for the American people or other countries in the world.
The crisis is being transmitted from America to the world. Even Washington post bluntly said that the debt crisis will not only plunge the United States into a recession comparable to that in 2008, but also have a disastrous impact on the global financial market.
The market is releasing a signal of losing confidence in the United States. The latest international capital flow report released by the U.S. Treasury Department shows that foreign investors are in succession.decreased byHoldings of long-term securities in the United States.
Since April this year, half of the top ten overseas holders of US debt have been selling US debt, including many traditional American allies such as South Korea.
The World Bank predicts that the actual economic growth of Brazil, which is more than 7,000 kilometers away from the United States, is much lower than the global economic growth expectation this year. Moreover, according to the data of the relevant departments of the Brazilian government, in the second quarter of this year, the number of unemployed people in Brazil was 14.4 million.
All of the above are related to the loose monetary policy and the increasingly high debt in the United States.
△ In Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, homeless people look for food in street garbage.
Liu Weidong told Tan Master:
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Even if the United States survives the debt crisis this time, countries around the world will still have more and more doubts about the sense of responsibility and stability of the United States itself.
"
This crisis of confidence comes not only from the economy.
Not long ago, the French newspaper le figaro published a report entitled "Biden Trump: Two Presidents, One Foreign Policy", which bluntly stated that Biden andNot brokenIn Trump’s foreign policy, on the contrary, Biden treated his allies arrogantly, which was far less different from his predecessor’s.
△ On September 21, 2021, local time, US President Biden spoke at the 76th UN General Assembly.
Obviously, the Biden administration is workingoverdrawTheir own political capital.
Liu Weidong, also came to this conclusion. He told Lord Tan:
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Biden’s slogan is that diplomacy should serve the interests of the American middle class, which is actually disguised ‘ Us priority ’ . Although there are some differences in the practice of some issues between the two governments, the actual goal of Biden’s government is no different from that of the previous government. This, in fact, cannot be ‘ Strange ’ The current government.
"
When the atmosphere has been formed, whoever does not mention "American priority" is the one."unpatriotic". Not long ago, Washington post issued a long warning that the legacy of the former American government, as well as the practices of the current government, is dragging the United States into the most serious political crisis since the Civil War.
However, just as the United States can only use one crisis to solve another crisis when dealing with the debt problem, political extremes are bound to aggravate the extremes of action. The United States, which treats chaos with chaos, is bound to plunge the world into a bigger one.In turmoil.
More than nine months ago, the Biden administration used the phrase "America is back" to say that it would lead the world again. But now it seems that the United States is neither qualified to say so, nor capable of doing so.
America, or that?Global chaotic source, has not changed.
