Gain imagination and innovation from the differences of different cultural civilizations

  [Dialogue of Guangming International Forum]

Gain imagination and innovation from the differences of different cultural civilizations

  Yan haiping

  Professor and supervisor of modern literature, comparative literature and cross-cultural studies in Tsinghua University Foreign Languages Department and Chinese Department, chief professor of the World Literature Class in Tsinghua School, and dean of the Tsinghua University Institute of World Literature and Culture.

Gain imagination and innovation from the differences of different cultural civilizations

  Martin Puchner

  Byron and anita Wayne are professors of drama literature, English literature and comparative literature at Harvard University.

Gain imagination and innovation from the differences of different cultural civilizations

  Laurent de Boriai

  Life-long senior professor of French literature, French literature and comparative literature at Cornell University, winner of the French Palm Leaf Academic Knight Order.

  Advantages and Disadvantages of Online Education and the Core of University Education

  Laurent de Boliai:Optimists may think that the epidemic will provide an unexpected opportunity for the expansion of "global consciousness"-because we are all likely to be affected by a common threat, this crisis may bring a new sense of interconnection. But this is not entirely the case. For example, we can see that there has been some kind of localism turn or self-preservation retreat at the two levels of ideological tendency and daily behavior. Some changes can be positive, such as the emergence of a new experimental community life mutual help and self-help model; Some are variations of chauvinism, such as "exceptionalism" and "supremacy". Broadly speaking, as more and more of our thoughts are uploaded to the global network, the homogenization and standardization of individuals and their behaviors have reached the peak at all levels. Numbers seem to be ruling the way we communicate, express our emotions and express our opinions, and the way is often the content.

  The core driving force of modern university education is academic creation, that is, to enhance the dual ability of connecting the past and building the future through intellectual creativity. This goal mechanizes and standardizes spiritual life, makes mental thinking inertial and procedural, and explains the ever-changing life with ready-made or simple reasons, which is opposite. All these phenomena and problems are aggravated by the isolation of many countries in response to the COVID-19 epidemic. As a university professor, my primary task at present is to protect the space necessary for creative thinking in the face of the challenge that the time required for human beings to realize education and creativity may be shortened, and to constantly make new and effective explanations.

Gain imagination and innovation from the differences of different cultural civilizations

  On October 21st, in Frankfurt, a visitor (left) communicated with a staff member of the joint booth of "China Publishing" in the China book exhibition area of Frankfurt Book Fair. Xinhua news agency

  Martin Puchner:Since the outbreak, we have continued to use zoom and similar video teaching platforms intensively, and now we are all tired. But obviously, online education has been greatly promoted. I joined a school-wide working group to think about the future of education. At present, we have put forward some quite ambitious plans, including creating a complete digital campus. There is a huge demand for high-quality education all over the world. I think this is an opportunity. Elite universities like Tsinghua and Harvard can educate more students than at present. This makes me very excited about the future of education. We have a good understanding of what works and what doesn’t work in online education. Now we can sum up the previous experience and lessons and design some really effective methods.

  Yan Haiping:How not to make online courses an easy version of information dissemination is an important issue. Online teaching is not massive open online course, but real teaching and learning through cloud classroom. This puts forward new requirements for the humanistic use of technology, including the active grasp of technology, the ability of creative integration and the scientific cognitive spirit full of humanistic imagination. I once listened in on Mr. Tsinghua’s class online and was very inspired. For example, a teacher who teaches Shakespeare’s plays skillfully uses all media, such as text marking, poem recitation, scene performance, montage of visual materials, and interactive teaching and learning between teachers and students, thus teaching a three-dimensional Shakespeare and his world. As for the negative impact of the epidemic, there is no need to avoid it. Face-to-face discussion in physics class and the life style of knowledge community on campus contain the wisdom crystallization of civilization renewal and extension in the long history of mankind, which is irreplaceable by various technological revolution means including online teaching.

  Great changes in education in the digital trend and the significance of humanities

  Laurent de Boliai:We need to pay attention to the problems caused by the impact of new technologies, which may narrow our thinking range instead of opening up a broader space for human innovative thinking. The production mechanism of digital media has actually instilled in us a specific content, that is, under the logic of capital operation, under the guidance of market profit rules and operating procedures, providing "content options" that look constantly changing but are actually homogeneous. Our thinking and even our minds are also limited by "instant messaging" based on the Internet, and everything is programmed under the information pressure brought by the accelerated capital flow. This rapid change of procedure and so-called activity is a kind of interference, even a loss, for any human ideological activity that needs long-term attention and dedicated analysis.

  In this regard, we need: first, to create a spiritual space for learning ideas, whose attributes and logic are different from the "capital flow" centered on immediate response program operation; Second, liberating humanities and education itself from being bound by technological operation and its efficiency logic is not against the scientific revolution-technology is not equal to science, but truly embraces the scientific spirit itself and forms an alliance with science, scientificity and revolutionary creativity as science; Third, adhere to the diverse connections and differences across time, space and environment in the life world.

  Martin Puchner:I agree with the indispensability of humanities in the great changes of education. It is a great pity that the humanities hardly played any role in the future education Committee and working group I participated in. In short, part of the reason is related to misunderstanding. For example, it is believed that humanities degrees can not bring good career opportunities and life prospects to young people, although there are convincing statistics showing that this is not the case. Part of the reason is related to conservatism within the humanities, which leads humanities scholars to intuitively and habitually reject new technologies and other innovations. Part of the reason is related to the fine division of majors. At least in the United States, many courses taught by humanities scholars are designed for future majors in humanities and even literature, rather than benefiting the overall development of a wider student group and knowledge community. These problems existed before the emergence of online education, indicating that the humanities are now in a structurally weak position. At the critical historical turning point of the current development of higher education, this will bring many long-term regrets, because humanities can and must play an extremely important role. From what I have heard, there is no similar weakness in the humanities in China.

Gain imagination and innovation from the differences of different cultural civilizations

  On October 14th, the audience took selfies at the China Silk Embroidery Exhibition at the Nazem Khikmet Cultural Center in Ankara. Xinhua news agency

  Yan Haiping:Chinese’s literature is a part of the world’s humanistic literature. Like the academic circles in other countries, it faces many common challenges and opportunities in the great changes. In 2016, we initiated and jointly established the "China-UK Higher Education Humanities Alliance" with major Chinese and British universities including Peking University, Fudan University, Cambridge and Oxford. We propose that economic globalization, which is increasingly driven by digital media and technological revolution, as another stage in the long-term changes in modern times, is changing the face of the world that spans all countries and regions and is shared by mankind. In the great changes, everything in the world is closely linked, so the differences are fully revealed. In order to achieve sustainable development, humanities academic and humanities education, which focuses on cross-cultural knowledge production, communication and innovation, has a clearer historical function and important significance. This is the consensus basis for the sustainable development of the alliance so far.

  All kinds of tensions and frictions in the global epidemic have confirmed the historical situation that human society is closely linked in profound differences. This situation is still accelerating, and the variables produced by scientific and technological changes in the next 30 years will exceed the sum of variables produced by scientific and technological changes since modern times. No matter how innovative science and technology are and how powerful the economy is in the era of globalization, the way in which it is related to human individuals, communities, nationalities, regions and different types of countries is particularly important. No country, region, population or individual can unilaterally cope with such great changes and reconnection in great changes, and multilateral cross-cultural humanities exchanges and cooperation are more urgent than ever.

  In the concrete cross-cultural communication, we discuss how to grasp the concrete experience full of differences, melt the human knowledge that can be shared, and contribute to the world by explaining the world to describe China and describing China in the spirit of "humanity is new" in today’s world context composed of thousands of languages and their relationships. This is the theoretical origin of Tsinghua University’s establishment of the Institute of World Literature and Culture in 2016 to complete the organizational reform of foreign languages and literature departments. The term "world literature and culture" here can include, but not refer to, an established major, but point to a vision of cultural intercommunication and mutual learning of civilizations, so as to help us update our methods and fields in education, reading and academic work, hoping to leave an intellectual labor in the human welfare of "harmony and symbiosis" and "beauty and beauty".

  What is needed in today’s world is exchange and cooperation rather than homogenization.

  Martin Puchner:More exchanges and cooperation between countries and nations have always been extremely necessary and beneficial, and there will never be an end, and there will never be a day of satisfaction. At the same time, I often overestimate the power of communication and cooperation. Before the First World War, the world had achieved a considerable degree of economic globalization, but it was followed by a period of intensified and intensified narrow nationalism, including the two world wars that eventually led to it. Therefore, efforts such as international exchange, cultural communication and educational cooperation cannot solve all the problems in the human world by themselves. However, such efforts play an important role, especially in today’s world with multiple power centers, competition between different blocks and coexistence of different political systems. For example, the current tension or friction between China and the United States does not make me think that we should reduce exchanges and cooperation. On the contrary, this is the moment when we need to strengthen exchanges and cooperation more.

  Laurent de Boliai:Theoretically, it seems that people today can easily establish contact with many different interlocutors. However, how do you choose the person you contact? How to talk, talk and even cooperate with them? In practice, the ready-made convenience of communication channels does not automatically mean that we have more space to meet others and gain new life experiences from them. There is often such a phenomenon, that is, such digital channels constitute many small groups "like us", which are clustered together in a homogeneous way, rather than gaining new experiences and growth from cultural diversity.

  For example, the "identity politics" in the United States, based on skin color, race, gender, etc., brings "the same people" together. The paradox is that holding a group in this way actually compresses rather than expands people’s imagination, mental world and emotional friendship. There will be communication in groups that are identity-centered or focus on the intersection of several identities, but it is difficult to have a "dialogue", that is, it is difficult to gain new experiences that break through their own limitations and gain the ability to change by absorbing new experiences. At present, one of our goals should be to strengthen meaningful dialogue with different people, so as to protect the life world with creativity and rich possibilities.

  Yan Haiping:The old China saying "Beauty and Beauty Together" and "Harmony and Symbiosis" I mentioned earlier carries the life information and wisdom of human beings in the long association. Humanistic research and education, which focus on cross-cultural communication and cooperation and innovation, is one of the contemporary knowledge carriers to inherit this information and wisdom, and one of the paths for different countries, nationalities, groups and individuals to learn from each other and update each other. Since the Peace Treaty of Westphalia in the 17th century, the geopolitics of modern nation-state originated in Europe and its hierarchical and balance-of-power logic dominated by power have had a profound and long-term influence on shaping the world pattern and its cultural concepts, including the established mode of taking nation-state as the category of knowledge production organization and its inertia limitations. After World War II, the field of comparative literature and a series of related interdisciplinary knowledge frontiers generated and developed in Europe and America are some intellectual reflections and cultural breakthroughs on the limitations of this established model.

  As far as my personal experience is concerned, comparative literature, transnational differences, cross-cultural subject innovation and talent training in the United States are mainly composed of English, French, German and Spanish. In Tsinghua University, where I teach, Tsinghua’s humanities and Tsinghua’s culture, as one of the sources of China’s pioneering and developing humanities since modern times, have been characterized by innovative ideas and study methods across languages, cultures and civilizations from the beginning, which always contain inquiries about geopolitics and the logic of balance of power originating in Europe, and demands for diverse and new ways of modern national and ethnic relations.

  Pay attention to the life world different from "standardization and homogenization"

  Martin Puchner:The cross-cultural development of humanities faces many difficulties. At least in most colleges and universities in the United States, it is still the basic status quo to use the unitary nation-state as the cognitive framework of discipline organization to produce knowledge. In my opinion, this is the main problem. Reorganizing the structural layout of departments, updating the requirements of professional competence, changing the evaluation and examination methods, etc., need many conditions to support, and the change is really not easy. As far as my limited understanding is concerned, the world literature class established by Tsinghua University World Literature Institute and Foreign Languages Department is an important example. As far as the general conditions of colleges and universities are concerned, perhaps these changes will not happen until other conditions are in place, partly because humanists often insist on maintaining the inertial knowledge system, at least in the United States. A paradox that puzzles me is that many humanists consider themselves pioneers of social change, but when it comes to their own cognitive composition and production methods, they are often conservative. A major methodological change that is taking place in the humanities is the digital humanities. It was over-hyped at the beginning, which led to a predictable rebound, but in the medium and long term, interesting changes in humanistic methods may come from this corner.

  Back to the cross-cultural perspective. I sometimes wonder whether the question also includes the dimension of "scale". A large society tends to be more conservative, narrow-minded and self-centered than a small society. Of course, scale is not the only important element, but I am more and more inclined to think that scale is an important factor. This means that a huge society like ours must make special efforts to enable students to gain their much-needed international vision and ability.

  Laurent de Boliai:I am very willing to study very different languages, texts, behaviors and thinking logic with students, and feel very rewarding. We should encourage the younger generation to have a careful understanding of the inherent multi-faceted tensions and subtle differences in various languages, texts, ways of behavior and thinking logic, as well as the productive nature of these tensions and differences. In other words, we attach importance to the life world different from "standardization and homogenization", and we attach importance to the humanistic meaning of the life world, because we think it is more imaginative, rich and innovative than the standardized and homogenized culture. Between the speculative form of humanistic exploration and the limitless science and technology, we should re-establish a dynamic relationship. Scientific and technological innovation is the main driving force of today’s global society, and science and technology have never developed in isolation. The development of science and technology is the development of people’s life world, and the development of people’s mutual relationship, that is, cross-cultural association. We encourage a new generation of humanities scholars to boldly create, discover, grasp and even invent the interactive and ubiquitous connection between new theories and daily reality.

  Yan Haiping:In a certain sense, humanistic literature is a modern practical process of human wisdom, which melts the life experience that is unrepeatable from generation to generation into value knowledge that can be used for reference and reconstruction from generation to generation, and supports, broadens and enhances the connotation and quality of life.

  At the same time, the proposal of cross-cultural academic and educational theory stems from the internal needs of each of us how to settle down in today’s world. The correlation and cognitive integration of cross-language families and cross-cultural civilizations have been practiced, experienced and called by generations of scholars in China and the world since modern times. Its productive power is particularly prominent in the period of historical change. Social individuals and groups born in different language families and cultural civilizations have transcended the limitations of established habits, inspired each other and updated each other in the consciousness of differences, forming an indispensable life experience and an imaginative time and space full of kinetic energy in modern times; For the development of cross-cultural humanities and humanities education, it provides a profound resource for knowledge innovation. I quite agree that this kind of knowledge production needs the basic support of production mechanism and a moderate fit with the social environment, which is possible and sustainable.

  Human culture has been learning from each other and innovating.

  Martin Puchner:When trying to understand the cultural evolution on a global scale for thousands of years, I was shocked by two things. The first thing is that cultures have been learning from each other from the beginning. For example, China borrowed Buddhism from India, while Japan borrowed Buddhism from China, and Europe borrowed Christianity from the Middle East. Sometimes, the borrowing of these series includes strange gaps and circuitous ways. For example, ancient Greek philosophy was forgotten in Europe, but it was preserved in Baghdad before being re-imported into Europe. It is also interesting that Rome decided to translate the whole Greek literary classics into Latin for no reason, and turned Greek into its ancestors, even though the Romans had no connection with Greece. Therefore, this is a confusing picture. Sometimes, cultural imports are imposed on conquered countries. But more often, these imports and exports do not follow clear boundaries of power. More often, the borrowing of culture is not a sign of the weak, but a sign of the strong.

  Another impressive thing is that in each case, cultural borrowing is part of an incredible creative adaptation process, leading to a striking new cultural form. When Rome borrowed Greek canon, it created something completely new. Learning from something seems to release creative energy.

Gain imagination and innovation from the differences of different cultural civilizations

  On November 10th, a Rwandan student tried on China’s clothes. On the same day, the activity of "China Culture Entering the Campus" was held in the School of Education of Rwandan University. Xinhua news agency

  These two points lead me to the conclusion that reducing cultural exchanges will mean reducing all the factors that make culture flourish. At the same time, more exchanges and mutual learning may bring about various creative absorption and adaptation processes, which in turn will lead to the formation of a specific integrated new culture. If so, I think it’s good; Otherwise, the world of life will become monotonous and boring.

  Laurent de Boliai:As a species in the sense of zoology, Homo sapiens also depends on countless other biological species and different beings, and we really depend on everything. Of course, this does not mean global convergence and standardization. On the contrary, recognizing that human beings are connected with other diverse worlds of time and space will lead to a series of meaning extensions. On the one hand, this means a firmer view that every living thing and existence on earth is intrinsically related to us. On the other hand, it is a hope to maintain the rich heterogeneity in the world. Just because everything shares a planet, the difference between everything is the embodiment and vitality of coexistence. On the other hand, "cross-culture" transcends the potential and imagination of human egoism, that is, we not only continue our lives in a variety of different worlds, but also cross, meet, talk, cooperate, imagine and create among these worlds.

  Yan Haiping:This is an era full of challenges and opportunities, which requires courage, conviction and imagination. In recent years, I have been sorting out the Chinese and English texts written in the past decades, and some books and letters about the cultural world in modern times accumulated and reread over the past decades. I keep classifying them by language, time, subject, proposition, etc., and at the same time, I open up another category, and put them on the combined bookshelf with a paragraph sentence, some life information and their explicit or implicit correlation. They cross all kinds of cognitive boundaries established by habits, and form a constellation group that is irreducible but inseparable from each other, calling, arguing and enlightening each other in the form of multiple polyphony. My duty is to listen to and record the endless human conversations.

  (Translation: Ran Haoyan, Zhang Hanwen)

  Guangming Daily (November 28, 2021, 08 edition)

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After the end of the era of "negative interest rate", the situation behind the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike has changed.

Source: Business School Magazine

Although China’s financial industry is confident to cope with the policy shock caused by the Bank of Japan’s turn, China’s financial institutions must take precautions, adhere to the principle of macro-prudence, and accelerate their business and digital transformation.

Text | Yan Jiajia Shi Dan

ID | BMR2004

The "boots" for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates for half a year finally ended on March 19th this year. The Bank of Japan announced that it would raise the benchmark interest rate from -0.1% to 0~0.1%, and at the same time cancel the yield curve control (YCC) policy. Realized the first rate hike in Japan’s macro-monetary policy in 17 years, ending "Abenomics"Eight years of negative interest rates.

The world’s three major central banks (Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan) have finally achieved nominal unification of interest rate policy direction (interest rate increase) after the US subprime mortgage crisis. At present, the world’s major economies, only China is in the stage of interest rate cuts. This also reminds China’s financial industry that it must be fully prepared and carefully handle the policy fluctuations of the three major central banks in the world, so as to maintain the prosperity and stability of China’s financial market, the internationalization of the RMB system and the stability of the RMB exchange rate.

So, what are the considerations for Japan to raise interest rates this time? What impact will Japan’s interest rate hike have? What is the future trend? How is it related to the upcoming shift of the Fed’s monetary policy? For China’s financial market, what should be the focus of Japanese interest rate hike?

01

Driving factors of Japan’s monetary policy shift

Japan’s low interest rate policy has been maintained for 25 years. As early as 1998, Japan’s interest rate fell to 0.25%, but it has not yet fallen to zero and negative interest rates.

"Japan’s long-term failure to raise interest rates can be traced back to 40 years ago. In the early 1980s, the bilateral trade friction between Japan and the United States continued to intensify, and the trade war gradually escalated into a currency war. The United States, Japan and other countries signed the famous Plaza Agreement, which triggered a sharp appreciation of the yen and accompanied by the rapid expansion of asset prices, which also led to the bursting of Japan’s bubble economy, which in turn triggered a sluggish domestic economy in Japan. At first, the Bank of Japan implemented a zero interest rate policy. By the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe came to power for the second time and began to implement the "Abenomics". Since then, the Bank of Japan has implemented a negative interest rate policy, which is known as the "different-dimensional" monetary policy. In other words, private banks in Japan have to deposit money with the Bank of Japan, not only without interest, but also with management fees. This is enough to show that the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan want to stimulate economic growth through active financial easing policies. " Dr. Dou Shaojie, a researcher at the Global HRM Research Center of Waseda University in Japan and a researcher at the SME Management Research Center of Tongshe University, told the reporter of Business School.

Chen Jia, an independent international strategy researcher and former researcher at the International Monetary Institute of Renmin University of China, said, "Before Shinzo Abe took office and began to focus on promoting the’ Abenomics’, Japan had been trapped in the’ lost decade’: the population was aging and the young people were flat; Weak investment in the real economy, low efficiency of enterprises and stall of scientific and technological innovation; Repeated shocks of the yen, rampant cross-border arbitrage, etc. Although previous Japanese prime ministers saw the problem, their targeted strategies were ineffective and were repeatedly bounced back by public opinion, which led to giving up halfway. Since Shinzo Abe took office, he has drastically implemented reform measures in the financial and social fields, especially the implementation of the’ Abenomics’ in macro-financial and monetary policies, aiming at vigorously stimulating Japan’s deep economic fundamentals. "

Gu Qinhua, a member of the North American Doctor of Laws Club, once worked in a Jewish international law firm as a cross-border transaction and investment consultant and lawyer, told the reporter of Business School that Japan has been in a low interest rate or even negative interest rate environment, with the aim of jumping out of the middle income trap. The government has adopted a monetary policy to continuously stimulate the economy, in which the negative interest rate policy is to make the funds not be deposited in the bank, but become idle funds. Not only Japan, Europe, the United States and other countries have also implemented negative interest rate policies, which is the performance of loose monetary policy to the extreme. Abe’s "Three arrows"(monetary easing, fiscal policy and growth strategy), through the way of" helicopter money ",that is, during the economic depression, through the maximum easing policy to stimulate the economy.

Since 1989, Japan has raised interest rates five times in a row in order to curb the rising real estate prices and economic inflation in Japan at that time. However, the consequence was that the "hot money" that poured into Japan was evacuated one after another, and the bubbles in Japan’s stock market and property market burst, and it was not recovered until the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2007. From a macro perspective, after Japan’s economic bubble burst in the 1990s, it fell into a typical ".middle income trap"At the same time, the Great Depression appeared in political economy, and the phenomenon called deflation appeared in the development of national economy. As a result, Japan has made up its mind to solve the problems of economic depression, overcapacity and deflation that are easy to occur in the middle-income trap.

Gu Qinhua believes that there are three steps to solve the "middle income trap" globally. The first step is to let companies and individuals with overcapacity and debts jump out of the "trap" and enter a promising foreign market. If these enterprises toss in the "trap", they will only get deeper and deeper. The way for Japan to get rid of the trap of depression, deflation and middle income is to jump out of the Japanese market and play a role in other markets full of opportunities. Take Toyota Motor Corporation of Japan as an example, its overseas output is rising steadily, which is about twice the domestic production value. It is not difficult to understand that building a car overseas requires huge amounts of money, and Japan’s loose monetary policy can allow huge amounts of money to support Japanese companies to go to sea. Enterprises that make money can continue to feed back the country and pay off debts.

The second step is to clear the sludge caused by debt in the "trap". The third step is to spend huge sums of money to directionally polish and cultivate more promising and competitive new products and fields. Any one of these steps can not be separated from the stimulus and support of the government’s massive cheap funds. The nature of capital and capitalist is profit-seeking, and the cheap yen gave birth to the yen carry trade. This kind of transaction using spread arbitrage is not a major means for financial products to jump out of the "trap" and enter other markets to make money.

Judging from the actual use of cheap yen, the proportion of foreigners borrowing money in Japan and investing overseas in places with higher interest rates is relatively small. Most of the funds were used by the Japanese in three aspects: on the one hand, overseas expansion. Toyota and other auto companies go to sea and even invest in American technology companies and new markets (such as China); The second aspect is to invest in the largest foreign exchange market. For example, there is a powerful force in the foreign exchange market called "Mrs. Watanabe". In Japan, men earn money, and women do housework at home. Over time, women begin to take charge of financial power. This special group of people is a fresh force in the foreign exchange market, and they hold a lot of dollars and other currencies. Foreign exchange trading has given birth to Japan’s great progress in computer, quantitative trading software, High-Frequency Trading (HFT), communication, artificial intelligence and artificial intelligence industries. The third aspect is overseas investors. Mainly American investors and hedge funds, but also some European and Asian investors, such as the interest rate increase of the Japanese yen, will have an impact on the property market, stock market, foreign exchange market and bond market in China Mainland and Hongkong.

Japanese investment banks are the main force in the financing of China’s state-owned enterprises and private enterprises. For example, Softbank has invested in many high-tech enterprises in China. These investments come not only from project financing and equity financing, but also from the Japanese government, various financial institutions and investors. However, Softbank may have recovered its capital out of pressure (transferring its shares and replacing them with Japanese yen to pay its debts).

It is worth noting that Japan’s low interest rate policy of not raising interest rates for a long time came to an end because of two kinds of pressures.

The first pressure comes from inflation. Japan’s financial sector has achieved the rise of its balance sheet after years of "struggling for a living". Japan cleared its debts in the 1990s, and the economy began to brew new momentum. Japan’s inflation used to be imported inflation. Now wages and stock market are rising, and the inflation rate is also rising. Therefore, both the traditional financial school and the post-financial school believe that the monetary interest rate should be normalized. Otherwise, the Bank of Japan, the core management institution of the government, will fail in its important position of regulating the effective, orderly and organic development of the domestic economy through monetary policy.

The level of inflation tolerated by Japan’s domestic economy, like the United States and European countries, is basically set at around 2%. If the actual inflation rate in Japan far exceeds 2%, then wages, labor insurance and welfare for the elderly should be adjusted and increased according to the inflation rate. Once inflation goes up, the pressure on government spending will increase significantly. Coupled with the severe aging of Japan’s population, most of Japan’s fiscal expenditure is spent on the elderly, so the ideal state is no inflation and no need to increase expenditure. If there is inflation, we must adjust the welfare of the elderly. In the past, Japan did not raise interest rates because most of the previous inflation was external.Imported inflationIt is not caused by internal reasons, but now that internal inflation is rising, the central bank has to raise interest rates.

So is America. Since the beginning of 2022, the United States has experienced a high level of inflation, which is caused by global supply chain problems, rising energy prices and tight labor market caused by the COVID-19 epidemic. In this case, the Federal Reserve has taken measures to raise interest rates to curb inflation and maintain economic stability. The purpose of raising interest rates is to reduce aggregate demand by raising borrowing costs and reducing consumption expenditure and investment, thus curbing inflation. Even if the national debt of the United States has reached $35 trillion, the interest rate on the debt will be very heavy after the interest rate increase, but the Fed has to raise interest rates, because fighting inflation is the first task of the Fed.

The second pressure comes from the currency appreciation caused by the trade surplus. Due to the great progress of Japan’s manufacturing capacity, foreign trade products and services and the long-term trade surplus, it will certainly be intimidated by other countries’ demands for currency appreciation. Just like the background of the Plaza Accord, countries forced the yen to appreciate rapidly through the Plaza Accord, because at that time, the United States and European countries all had pressure on Japan’s trade deficit.

Without the pressure of domestic inflation and trade surplus, the Japanese government is willing to keep easing, which is a big move for it to jump out of the middle-income trap.

Dou Shaojie said that at that time, "Abenomics" wanted to achieve the recovery and development of the Japanese economy, and set several indicators, the most important of which was the price index, which rose by 2% every year. But in fact, despite the Japanese government’s efforts, this 2% target has not been achieved until the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic.

This move by the Bank of Japan actually confirmed two indexes. One is that the price index has risen by 2% for two consecutive years, and the second index is that the wage increase rate has reached 5%. However, among these two indexes, the first price index has indeed achieved a 2% increase for two consecutive years, but whether the second index has really been achieved remains to be discussed. Because the wage increase rate of large Japanese enterprises did achieve a 5.2% increase for the first time in the "Spring Fight" in March this year ("Spring Fight" is a national labor-management negotiation held in Japan every spring, which plays a guiding role in the annual wage increase in Japan), but the wage increase rate of small and medium-sized enterprises, which account for 99.7% of the enterprises, has just exceeded 4.5%. Another suspense is whether wage increase and price increase have really achieved a virtuous circle. Because although wages seem to have increased, compared with the price index, the increase rate is not enough, and the real wage growth rate remains at a negative growth level (-0.6%, January 2024), and it has been negative for 22 consecutive months. It can be seen that domestic consumption in Japan has not really developed.

In fact, Kazuo Ueda, the president of the Bank of Japan, resisted Abenomics from the very beginning, and he held different views on the Bank of Japan’s continuous loose monetary policy. When he took over from former president Kuroda in 2023, there were many voices speculating that "will he cancel the negative interest rate monetary policy as soon as he takes office?" From the adjustment effect on March 19th this year, it can be seen that the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike did not cause a sharp drop in the stock market, nor did it cause a large fluctuation in the yen exchange rate. This is obviously the effect that the Bank of Japan "released the wind" in advance and was digested by the market.

Generally speaking, the reason why the Bank of Japan adjusted its monetary policy is that the Japanese economy has achieved a moderate recovery on the one hand, and wages have risen moderately on the other. The adjustment of monetary policy is to make the virtuous circle between wages and prices more stable. On January 23, 2024, the Outlook on Economic and Price Situation issued by the Bank of Japan pointed out that the growth rate of women and the elderly participating in labor slowed down, the supply and demand of labor was further tense, and the pressure of wage increase would increase.

From the perspective of the supply side, women and the elderly have participated in the labor market in the past 10 years or so. These labors have increased supply and demand, and as a result, wages have not risen. At present, the growth rate of women’s and the elderly’s participation in labor is slowing down, and their wages are facing upward pressure. Just like migrant workers in China go to cities, the hourly wages of inexhaustible migrant workers will be very low, and the wages will rise rapidly when there is a shortage of migrant workers. This will bring the pressure of rising labor costs in terms of cost, and at the same time help to increase the purchasing power of families. At present, the Japanese government believes that it can withdraw from the negative interest rate and YCC policy and realize a virtuous circle of wages and prices.

02

Global monetary and financial markets may fluctuate.

Chen Jia said that as we all know, the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy, especially interest rate decision, followed the Fed for a long time after World War II, which is the famous phenomenon of "three central banks strike one blow and three earthquakes" in the global monetary history that we have observed in the past 40 years, that is, as long as the Fed raises interest rates, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank always "resonate at the same frequency". However, over the past year or so, the Federal Reserve has taken the initiative to raise interest rates in order to control the ultra-high inflation in the United States. In the same period, among the three major central banks in the world, only the European Central Bank maintained the general direction of following the Fed’s monetary policy for its own purpose of suppressing high inflation. Limited by its stagflation and Abenomics orientation, the Bank of Japan "parted ways" with the Federal Reserve for the first time in decades.

Focusing on more than a year before the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, the United States and Europe raised interest rates and China and Japan cut interest rates, which are the fundamentals of global macro-money. Most global financial centers with the US dollar system as the main trading system generally have high market interest rates, which leads to the widening gap between the benchmark interest rates in the offshore and onshore markets of China financial markets, and the benchmark interest rate in the offshore RMB market is generally higher than that in the mainland.RMB benchmark interest rateLooking back, the recent difference between offshore RMB and onshore RMB in deposit interest rate has become increasingly prominent, which is essentially a realistic response to the huge gap between the major central banks in the world in the direction of monetary policy.

Less than a year after the tentative introduction of YCC deregulation, the Bank of Japan finally returned to raise interest rates in line with global market expectations. On the surface, the "post-Kuroda era" policy changed course and followed the Fed again, but in fact, the top design core of Japan’s monetary policy has never changed. Once the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the Bank of Japan, the Japanese yen and Japanese bonds are likely to become a major source of fluctuations in the global monetary and financial markets in the future.

From the analysis of market data, there have been frequent chaos in the global currency and financial markets recently; The prices of non-interest-bearing assets have rocketed, and gold has fluctuated at a high price; Encrypted assets such as Bitcoin have been dormant for three years and then soared to historical highs again. Behind all this is the decline in the yield of interest-bearing assets relative to non-interest-bearing assets caused by the uncertainty of global monetary policy.

Under the condition that the market is so turbulent, the Bank of Japan can only try its best to maintain the stability of bond operations and prevent the Japanese yen hot money in the global financial market from using the Bank of Japan’s policy steering again for policy arbitrage. This is not only the main reason why the Bank of Japan indicated that it would make long-term efforts to maintain the balance between the volume and price of its bond purchases after it turned to raising interest rates, but also the fundamental reason why the yen exchange rate in the global market fell instead of rising.

03

Choice of the pace of Japan’s interest rate hike in the future

Chen Jia said that neither the economic base nor the superstructure in Japan has the objective conditions to tighten monetary policy quickly in the short term. Excessive interest rate hikes only increase the feasibility of international financial market arbitrageurs to increase their holdings of yen-denominated assets in the short term, which has spawned a Japanese stock market bubble. From the analysis of the benchmark of the fundamental operation of the central bank, the necessary conditions for the Bank of Japan to really have the opportunity to enter the interest rate hike channel must be based on the camera choice in the macro-economy of Japan, the return of the yield curve to normal, the expected high core inflation rate, and the majority support of opinion polls for interest rate hikes.

Gu Qinhua said that due to geopolitical reasons, Japan’s interest rate hike may have an interaction with the US interest rate cut. When the US starts to cut interest rates, Japan will raise interest rates. When the United States is not healthy, Japan will add very little or even nothing. There is no need to guess the timing of the Fed’s interest rate cut. It must be one of the following two opportunities: the first is that the inflation rate has been below 3% for many times in a row. If it is below 3%, it is still possible to revive, and it is easy to jump above 5%. The second is the financial crisis, such as bank failures and mass unemployment. The mass unemployment is due to the high cost, the business owners can’t afford to hire too many people, and they don’t have the funds to expand reproduction, so there will be a large number of layoffs, which is a sign of economic downturn. Another sign is the debt crisis, bank failures and so on. After the above situation occurs, the Fed will definitely cut interest rates.

Gu Qinhua believes that the yen’s interest rate hike will put two conditions on the United States. The first is to lift the restrictions imposed by the United States on the increase of Japanese military spending after World War II, so that it can have the ability to protect its own achievements, not just the self-defense forces, but also its own army. In the meantime, the United States should strengthen its protection and transfer of armament technology. The second condition is not to interfere too much with Japan’s foreign trade surplus. Japan should organize a new Asian trade circle excluding China, and Japan’s trade volume should be weighted and averaged throughout the new trade circle. The United States cannot count the trade volume generated by Japanese enterprises established in the United States, which mainly recruit American employees, as Japan’s total foreign trade with the United States.

Every central bank’s interest rate hike is a process of returning capital. For example, money placed in American banks has a 5% interest rate, while Japan only has a zero interest rate or even a negative interest rate. If you deposit a certain amount of money, you have to pay management fees. Everyone will definitely want to deposit money in American banks, plus the Japanese yen and the US dollar can be freely exchanged without restrictions.

The reason for currency depreciation is that it is thrown a lot. Like stocks, if someone throws it, it will fall. Therefore, the depreciation of the yen is also due to the government’s issuance of additional currency, which continues to stimulate the economy. Because the yen arbitrage transactions are frequent, for example, the "Mrs. Watanabe" group does foreign exchange transactions, people can’t let the yen stay in the process of trading forever, and it needs to be landed. It is definitely the best to land in US dollars, and the US dollar is deposited in the bank with interest. As soon as the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, the cost of borrowing will increase, and the money will naturally flow back to Japan to repay the principal and interest and feed back the suzerain country.

Dou Shaojie believes that this move of the Bank of Japan can be said to be "the first step of the Long March", that is, from the abnormal state of "different dimensions" to the normal state, but what will happen afterwards, considering the interests of all parties, especially the reality of the Japanese government, it is estimated that the Bank of Japan will not take too radical measures.

After all, the Bank of Japan has been buying Japanese government bonds through YCC for a long time. By the end of 2023, the Bank of Japan held about 53.7% of Japanese government bonds, so the biggest creditor of the Japanese government is the Bank of Japan. If you borrow money, you have to pay it back, and you need to pay interest. In 2023, the debt interest that the Japanese government needs to pay is 8.5 trillion yen, accounting for about 1.4% of Japan’s annual GDP. If the Bank of Japan continues to raise interest rates at this time, the interest expenses that the Japanese government needs to bear will increase. The Japanese government, whose finances are already tight, is even more difficult, and may even raise the consumption tax again. Therefore, the Bank of Japan will also take a very cautious attitude towards the increase of interest rates. However, it is also very difficult for the central bank. If interest rates are not raised properly, from the perspective of foreign investors, Japanese interest rates will not be raised, and the yen may depreciate further.

04

Warning and Response to China

In Gu Qinhua’s view, monetary policy has two sides, both favorable and unfavorable, and every country is trying to avoid disadvantages as much as possible.

For example, one of the benefits of cutting interest rates is that it can reduce the burden on investors and the deficits of local governments, enterprises and ordinary people, but it will also be accompanied by concerns about the outflow of money, because money is as pervasive as water and difficult to stop.

For another example, lowering the deposit reserve ratio has both advantages and disadvantages. The advantage is to release liquidity and reduce it by 0.5 percentage point, which may create the effect of 1 trillion cash. Because banks have more money, they can support more repeated loans. However, the first disadvantage is that it creates an illusion of abundant funds and rising deposit interest rates. Although it seems to improve liquidity on the surface, it makes the amount of social financing and the deposits of ordinary people rise. In fact, the money is just idling inside the bank. When idling, there will be a problem. Assets that do not create assets are liabilities. This is also a very important point in monetary finance: no matter how big or abundant an asset is, it is defined as a liability if it cannot bring benefits.

The second disadvantage of interest rate cuts is that there are many "thunderbolts" now. The deposit reserve was originally one of the important tools for the central bank to cope with the "thunderbolts" of banks. When banks fail to meet their debts, they are used to subsidize depositors. However, if the deposit reserve ratio is low, the scope of protection will be reduced. In addition, it will also make depositors worry. For example, once a large real estate company goes bankrupt, depositors of the bank with the most loans will calculate the risks and may transfer their deposits to other banks, which is also a kind of idling of funds.

The third disadvantage of interest rate reduction is that it falsely creates an increase in social financing and deposits, making it difficult for decision makers to accurately determine the market capital situation.

It is difficult to explain whether banks should raise interest rates or cut interest rates in this complex market situation. Any policy has its internal and external causes, advantages and disadvantages, and needs to be judged and selected. In Gu Qinhua’s view, foreign investors should be gathered at this time, and interest rates should not be cut sharply. Some targeted subsidies can be taken to stabilize foreign funds.

In addition, we should learn from the successful strategies of Japan, South Korea, the United States and other countries to get out of the middle-income trap and seek development in overseas markets with real opportunities. Because the middle-income trap is a hurdle that all economies have to pass in the development process. When the economy develops, people tend to expand, get into debt, artificially push up assets and create some bubbles. These bubbles are not transferred by human will, and eventually there will be a low tide "trap".

Chen Jia said that since the exchange rate reform in 2015, China’s financial system has been optimizing the governance structure of the macro-prudential supervision system, especially in the governance of cross-border financial arbitrage. Although China’s financial industry is confident to cope with the policy shock caused by the Bank of Japan’s turn, China’s financial institutions must take precautions, adhere to the principle of macro-prudence, and accelerate their business and digital transformation. Taking the Bank of Japan as a mirror, it is the advanced realm of macro-prudential supervision system to do all the concrete work to prevent and resolve systemic risks and eliminate major risks invisibly.

Source | Business School Magazine, May 2024

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Xu Shu, a playwright of Sichuan Opera who won the Lifetime Achievement Award at the age of 90: It is a kind of happiness to be bitter after a lifetime of drama.

  On the evening of November 27th, at the closing ceremony of the 18th China Theatre Festival, 90-year-old famous Sichuan Opera playwright Xu Shu won the Lifetime Achievement Award (Drama) of the 2023 China Federation of Literary and Art Circles. This is the first female playwright in the history of Sichuan Opera, and she has also become another senior artist in Sichuan Opera after the famous playwright Wei Minglun.

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  Feel the charm of Sichuan opera

  Xu Shu was born in Chongqing in 1933. Her childhood was full of war, and Chongqing, as the rear area of the Anti-Japanese War at that time, accepted many compatriots from the enemy-occupied areas. Xu Zhuo remembers that most mainlanders near her home came from Hubei. "We call them ‘ Xiajiang people ’ In fact, it is from the enemy-occupied area. After they came, especially after the northerners came, Peking Opera flourished in Chongqing. "

  The shadow of war and the difficulties of daily life have not obliterated people’s demand for spiritual and cultural life. At that time, there was a "wounded soldier management office" in the courtyard of Xu Zhuo’s house, where people had to appear in BLACKPINK and sing a Peking Opera almost every month. "They let us children go to be girls, Gonge, colorful girls and so on. I just got in touch with Beijing opera and then learned to sing it. So my earliest drama enlightenment was actually Peking Opera. " Xu Wei said.

  In addition, because Xu Shu’s eldest brother loves drama, it also opens a door to the world of drama for Xu Shu as a child. In junior and senior high school, Xu Shu watched a lot of dramas and became a famous "little actor" in the school.

  Before he graduated from high school, his family declined because of his father’s death, and his eldest brother’s drama club burned a lot of money. In order to ensure his younger brother graduated from junior high school, Xu Shu ended his studies ahead of schedule, but he never gave up studying. For half a year, she spent all her time in a friend’s study — — This friend’s brother has a rich collection of books, so Xu Shu has read almost all the books in that room: from Lu Xun and Ba Jin to Dumas and Tolstoy, he has been involved in all ages, at home and abroad.

  She especially likes Lu Xun.

  After spending half a "Gap Year" reading crazily, Xu Zhuo joined the army and became a member of the Art Troupe, and went to the front line of the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea to cheer for the soldiers and perform various "rap" — — "I learned to sing Henan pendant, Beijing Dan Xian, Jingyun Drum, Shandong Express Book, Anhui Fengyang Flower Drum, etc. I couldn’t perform drama on the battlefield, so I performed some opera sketches."

  It never occurred to her that the first time she came into contact with Sichuan Opera and was captured by its charm, it was actually on the battlefield. In a condolence performance, there is the Jade Crab by Liu Jinlong, a famous Sichuan opera, and Qiu Jiang, a high-pitched opera by a famous young Dan.

  "Remember it was night, Jing Yan was singing, and the enemy plane came. Suddenly, the red and black curtains and door curtains were tightened at the performance site. " Xu Shu recalled, "I had been chatting with others under the stage and didn’t pay attention to go to the opera, but when the enemy plane came, everyone was holding their breath, and I suddenly heard the singing of Jing Yan. For an instant, it seemed like the sound of nature poured into my ears, which was wonderful and beautiful, and completely conquered me."

  In 1954, after changing jobs from the army, Xu Zhuo was admitted to the journalism department of Peking University. At that time, the Culture Department of Peking University Student Union established a local opera club. "When they saw in the file that I was a member of the art troupe, they called me to be the president of the local opera society, and I acted with my classmates."

  At that time, Peking University Student Union had a special Peking Opera Club, so Xu Shu’s local opera club did not perform Peking Opera, but mostly performed Pingju Opera, Yue Opera, Sichuan Opera, Huangmei Opera, Hunan Huagu Opera and Errenzhuan. These comprehensive performance experiences made Xu Shu’s opera skills more solid. Outstanding performance, she was also like a "corner" of Peking University. Many people knew her, and even the guards greeted her warmly when they entered and left the school gate: "Come back!" "Going to town to play?"

  She and her husband, Zhang Yujun, also met in a local opera club. Because the two often play together, and most of them are husband and wife roles, one after another, the two young people gradually become attached to each other for life because of the play.

  Compared with the story of their acquaintance and love, the day they got married was more dramatic — — In 1956, Xu Shu and Zhang Yujun set a wedding date and invited some old comrades to celebrate. Unexpectedly, the day coincided with the Beijing Cultural Performance, and the "Liu Hai Chopping firewood" performed by the two people also happened to be on that day.

  Several comrades who came to congratulate her waited at home, but Xu Zhuo and Zhang Yujun acted on the stage, still playing husband and wife. "Because there is also a scene of paying homage to the church in the drama" Liu Hai Chops firewood ",we first became married on the stage and then went home to get married. My fate with the drama is so deep." Xu Wei said.

  Why can’t my Yanyan resist?

  After entering Peking University, Xu Shu came into contact with systematic literature courses, including the development history of zaju and Yuanqu in Yuan Dynasty. The drama of Guan Hanqing, the founder of Yuan Dynasty zaju, is naturally the content of her in-depth study. For this ancient playwright who lived more than 700 years ago, his social values are certainly different from those of modern times, especially in the status and ideology of women.

  Xu Zhuo’s "opinion" is particularly great about Guan Hanqing’s famous drama "Tune the Wind and Moon". Yan Yan, the heroine in the original play, is a handmaid of a large family. She is clever and strong-minded, and is favored by her host family. One day, Hanazono Sakura, a relative of the master, came to visit, and Yan Yan, the old lady, went to serve. A handsome young Hanazono Sakura household tricked Yan Yan into being sincere, but then abandoned her and married Yingying, a noble lady.

  Yan Yan, who was extremely indignant, made a big wedding reception on the day when Hanazono Sakura households got married, and publicly pointed out what Hanazono Sakura households had done to themselves. Finally, she "won" — — You can marry Hanazono Sakura as a concubine.

  In Guan Hanqing’s original script, Yan Yan was very satisfied with the ending, because her identity was defined as being a little lady. "I have to dance with my husband in one place, and Yan Yan is full of peanuts." Therefore, many drama critics think that this is a comedy, and Yan Yan dares to fight for her rights and interests, and has worked hard enough.

  However, Xu Zhuo was very angry after reading it: "I studied Balzac, Lu Xun and Ba Jin since I was a child. How can I accept this so-called ‘ Success ’ ?” She rewrote the story and let Yan Yan choose to fight in the most extreme way — — Expose the hero’s fickleness and disloyalty, hang him on the wedding bed of the ungrateful man and Yingying, and curse them with their own lives for "white murder and bad luck".

  Melinda Gates once said: "If a girl’s life is arranged, then this arrangement will be beneficial to everyone except herself." In Xu Zhuo’s Yan Yan, as long as Yan Yan obeys the arrangement, the Yingying couple and the old lady are kind to her, and once Yan Yan doesn’t get what she wants and fights step by step, the three of them work together to suppress and persecute her.

  "Cao Xueqin’s mandarin ducks can commit suicide by hanging themselves. Why can’t my swallow resist?" Xu Zhuo let Yan Yan resist to the end in her story.

  In 1961, Xu Shu was transferred to Chengdu Sichuan Theatre and became a professional screenwriter of Sichuan Opera. On May 13th, 1963, Sichuan Theatre in Chengdu performed Yan Yan in Shanghai, and Ba Jin also watched it and praised it. What impressed Xu Zhuo deeply was that she knew that Ba Jin usually said "not bad" when he praised people, but that time he praised Yan Yan as "very good".

  Yan Yan was an instant hit and its performances in various places were a great success. "Some people saw the class struggle, some people saw the traditional morality, some people saw the liberation of personality, human dignity and so on. This ambiguity of Yan Yan was rare in the opera repertoire at that time." Xu Shu later concluded that the innovation of this play was mainly based on the drama she was familiar with.

  It’s not an old Sichuan opera, but it must be a Sichuan opera

  This comprehensive creative technique has become a distinctive feature of Xu Zhuo’s Sichuan opera creation. In addition to Yan Yan, Biography of Scholar and Wang Xifeng are also representative plays of her early works. "At that time, my requirements for myself were: independent thinking, unique conception, unique approach and uniqueness. But at that time, I just started from my own aesthetic needs, and I was not satisfied with the relatively simple and outdated state of the opera. I was eager to transform and enrich it, and wanted to make the opera more in line with the aesthetic taste of modern and contemporary people. "

  In the period of "exploratory drama" in 1980s, Xu Shu began to change from spontaneity to self-consciousness. She published many articles on drama, reflecting and summarizing not only the past of drama, but also the future of drama.

  When this kind of exploration was put into practice in his own works, Tian Jie and Zhuang Zhou, Dream in the Red Chamber and Craving for the Sea appeared. Xu Zhuo pursues the perfect combination of inheriting tradition and developing tradition, the perfect combination of classical beauty and modern beauty, and the perfect combination of ideological content and artistic form.

  In addition to learning from drama, she also actively absorbs nutrition from film art — — Montage, the fading in and out of the picture, the use of close-ups and lighting technology. "I can use lighting to make the transition of time and space on the stage as smooth as flowing water, which can save a lot of unnecessary scenes and actions and increase the capacity of the opera." At the same time, Xu Zhuo also unceremoniously "took" and used the techniques that are connected with traditional Chinese opera, such as virtuality, symbolism, symbolism, expressiveness, absurdity and stream of consciousness.

  At the same time, she always demands that her Sichuan Opera cannot be divorced from its original essence. "It’s not an old Sichuan opera, but it must be a Sichuan opera!" Chen Yan, a former party secretary of the Chinese Drama Association, once praised Xu Shu, saying that her plays are "almost everywhere, creative and novel, but everywhere, the freehand brushwork of the drama is brought into full play and the aesthetic characteristics of the essence of the drama are adhered to. At the same time, Xu Zhuo’s works have great humanistic care and life compassion. Respecting life, respecting the weak and even the losers is a truly modern consciousness. "

  Perhaps many people don’t know that in addition to rich and wonderful Sichuan opera creation, Xu Zhuo has also written two long historical novels. According to her introduction, the Xinhai Tide of Chengdu was written after she wrote the drama Xinhai Tide. "After this novel came out, I wanted to write it again when I saw that everyone liked it." Su Dongpo and His Great Song Dynasty is actually a continuation of "drama". "I have created 20 episodes of TV series" Su Dongpo ",which is also wanting more, and then I wrote a novel. I didn’t expect the novel to come out, and everyone liked it. You see, I can’t write a novel without a play. "

  Although the remuneration for writing TV plays is much higher than that for writing Sichuan plays, Xu Zhuo still gave up the former. "TV dramas are too commercialized, the weight of art is squeezed out a lot, and the author has no right to speak." She said that if it is only for money, it will lose the value of self. I have been engaged in drama since I was seven or eight years old, and I have been engaged in it all my life. "Drama has become my second life, and it is a pleasure for me to engage in drama no matter how hard it is!"

  For her career, Xu Shu feels full enough, and the only and biggest regret is that although her plays have won many famous roles in Sichuan Opera, she has never found an apprentice who can take over the mantle of screenwriter. To this end, she specially wrote "Records of Sorrow and Joy on the Stage — — Xu Shu talks about the book "Screenplay", "I hope that my 70 years of experience and lessons will not be wasted, and I can give some help to later drama workers, especially drama workers."

  In October this year, the Sichuan Opera "Flowers Drift and Water Drift", which was written and directed by her, appeared at the Chang ‘an Grand Theatre in Beijing. This is a new story of Qingyun Palace, a traditional Sichuan opera. Xu Shu recalled that more than 60 years ago, after watching traditional dramas such as Celebrating the Palace, Going to a Different Palace, and Three Bottles of Vinegar in Qingyun Palace, she was very disgusted. She never saw women bow their heads voluntarily under the weight of male power. Even if their feelings were trampled and their dignity was trampled, they still only cared about and dared to attack other women.

  More than 60 years ago, it was the time when the young Xu Zhuo began to adapt Yan Yan. From the early stage to the late stage of her creative career, the women in Xu Shu’s works are always brave, beautiful, full of vitality and never give in.

CITIC Think Tank: Prospect of Eight Consumption Trends in China in 2025

On April 13th, 2025, the 5th China International Consumer Goods Expo (hereinafter referred to as Consumer Expo) was held in Hainan International Convention and Exhibition Center. period, CITIC think tank released the report "Eight Trends of China’s Consumption in 2025".

Jiang Ya, an expert of CITIC think tank and chief analyst of consumer industry of CITIC Securities Research Institute, and Yu Xiang, chief analyst of policy research, combined with macro-economy, policy orientation and technological changes, interpreted the consumption trend of China market around the supply and demand ends of consumer industry.

Trend 1:

Return to rationality, quality upgrading and consumption equalization go hand in hand

At present, consumer spending is rational, and in the long run, the internal upgrading trend of consumption will not change. Consumers pay more attention to "cost performance" in clothing and household items. This phenomenon is similar to the trend of clothing de-branding and beer degradation during the period of pressure on foreign consumption power. However, consumers are not limited to balancing the price when measuring the cost performance, but also pay attention to the additional added value brought by the products, such as mood and health. This trend shows that the pursuit of high-quality life by different groups of consumers is the common underlying logic. Under the same design and quality, more consumers choose domestic brands with obvious price advantages.

Trend 2:

Happy life, spiritual appeal drives experience consumption.

After the per capita GDP of developed countries exceeded 10,000 US dollars, the proportion of service consumption increased significantly, and the transformation of residents from material satisfaction consumption to high-end consumption, improved consumption and personalized consumption accelerated. China is also experiencing this transformation. About 260 million generation Z (born in 1995-2009), as the core promoters, have the characteristics of self-satisfaction and strong consumption power, and their consumption power is improving. At the same time, after 70 years of retirement age, compared with the previous generation of silver-haired people, their consumption concept is stronger and their emotional demands are richer. We expect that the consumption of fragrance, jewelry, beauty cosmetics, luxury goods, IP goods at the commodity end, and spiritual satisfaction such as leisure, entertainment and health care at the service end will show a clear upward trend.

Trend 3:

Consumption is new, and technology iteration promotes new directions.

Digital economy and biotechnology are giving birth to a new direction of consumption and challenging the traditional consumption pattern. Digital economy is the key word in China government’s policies to stimulate consumption, which will push technologies such as artificial intelligence, virtual reality, augmented reality and metauniverse into the consumption scene. In the field of biotechnology, the application of synthetic biology in agriculture, food and beauty cosmetics deserves attention.

Trend 4:

The cycle is open, and China’s consumption is at the right time

Following the traditional advantageous industries such as home appliances, automobiles and consumer electronics, the Internet and local consumer brand enterprises have also entered the stage of seeking increment at sea. In addition to the export-oriented industries, "water sellers" who provide supporting services for overseas enterprises, such as cross-border platforms, logistics, payment, marketing and exhibition services, will be the first to benefit. At the destination, Europe and America are still the main markets, but emerging markets such as the Middle East and Southeast Asia are emerging.

Trend 5:

Trade-in the old for the new, strengthen the expansion, improve quality and increase efficiency

In 2025, the trade-in policy will be more effective. In terms of funds, the amount of subsidy funds this year is 300 billion yuan, a substantial increase over last year; In terms of strength, the amount of subsidies for new energy buses and power batteries has increased from 60,000 yuan to 80,000 yuan, which is also significantly higher than last year; In terms of scope, three types of digital products, such as mobile phones, tablets and smart watch bracelets, have been added. It is estimated that in 2025, the amount of 300 billion yuan of old-for-new subsidies will incite 630 billion yuan of incremental sales, driving the total retail sales of consumer goods to increase by 1.3 percentage points.

Trend 6:

Increase income and reduce burdens, and improve residents’ spending power.

The policy layer pays more attention to the improvement of residents’ consumption power and promotes residents’ income increase and burden reduction. In the short term, measures such as raising the minimum wage standard, residents’ pension standard and the salary of financial support personnel are expected to be introduced. In the medium and long term, improving residents’ income should not only improve the wage growth mechanism of workers, but also further cultivate and expand more high value-added industries.

Trend 7:

Maternity allowance was extended from the pilot to the whole country.

In 2025, the National People’s Congress and the National People’s Congress clearly put forward the idea of "formulating fertility promotion policies and granting childcare subsidies". It is expected that the maternity subsidy policies in various places will gradually shift from pilot to full-scale, and at the same time accelerate the construction of all-round "fertility support" policy system covering the fields of nursing care, nursery services and educational support. In March, Hohhot released the detailed rules of local maternity allowance, in which the maximum single-child allowance can reach 100,000 yuan, which is significantly higher than the current pilot policy. Extrapolating the whole country according to the subsidy standard of Hohhot, it is estimated that the financial expenditure of maternity subsidy will be 287 billion yuan by 2030, accounting for only 0.2% of GDP, which is still far from other countries.

Trend 8:

Stock market, property market and asset price attach importance to upgrading.

Stabilizing the stock market and the property market was first written into the government work report in 2025. Real estate accounts for about 60% of China residents’ asset structure, which plays an important role in residents’ balance sheet. It is estimated that for every 1% increase in housing prices in China, household consumption will increase by 0.09%; For every 1% increase in share price, household consumption will increase by 0.02%. Subsequent house prices and stock prices have gradually stabilized under a package of policies, further promoting the stabilization of household consumption.

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Challenging the male soldiers, the women’s volleyball team leader of the new corps is full of enthusiasm

Zhou Jinxi who challenged the male soldiers. Photo courtesy of the Mobile Detachment of Hainan Armed Police Corps
Haikou, Nov. 26th, Zhongxin. com (Li Yezhen, Chen Yefa) "The overall score of live-fire shooting of female soldiers’ class is excellent, reaching 13 minutes and 30 seconds in 3000 meters, so I ask if you are dissatisfied?" In the new corps of Hainan Armed Police Corps, Zhou Jinxi, the platoon leader of female soldiers, launched a challenge to the male recruits of the whole regiment. It was this newly graduated female volleyball leader who led the female soldiers to break the limit again and again and achieved excellent results in various assessments.
Zhou Jinxi participated in the contest. Photo courtesy of the Mobile Detachment of Hainan Armed Police Corps
Zhou Jinqian, a native of Haikou, Hainan, saw on TV when she was a child that soldiers stood up and acted against the trend when the country was in danger, and she decided to devote her youth to the motherland like them when she grew up. In 2017, with excellent college entrance examination results, Zhou Jinxi was admitted to the Armed Police Engineering University after strict political examination and physical examination, and began his own "one bar" army life, realizing his childhood dream.
Photo courtesy of Zhou Jinqian’s mobile detachment of Hainan Armed Police Corps during school.
At school, as one of the few female students in the class, because of her small figure, her comrades-in-arms showed special care and care for her, and she was hardly allowed to go out on business. But who knows, this thin female student has a "malicious" strength in her bones. On the training ground, all subjects will be trained with male students, and tactical training will wear out elbows and bruise knees; Queue training knees and feet, fixed-point positioning; Shooting training is full of hot sun and concentration; Physical training insists on gritting one’s teeth and never gives up … It is with this serious strength that Zhou Jinxi broke the record of 20×5 bending around the pole with a gun at the Sports Meeting of Armed Police Engineering University. "At the beginning, I couldn’t keep up with the rhythm of training, and even questioned myself. As a girl, why did I come to suffer this hardship? But when I thought that this road was my own choice, I had to finish it anyway. Fortunately, hard work pays off." Zhou Jinxi said.
The honor won by Zhou Jinxi. Photo courtesy of the Mobile Detachment of Hainan Armed Police Corps
In the past four years, she has served as vice squad leader, squad leader, district captain and simulation instructor, and has been rated as an outstanding student, an advanced individual in women’s contributions, a military training model, etc. for many times, and won a personal third-class merit. On behalf of the Armed Police Engineering University, he participated in the 2019 Model United Nations Conference and Military Academy Invitational Tournament at the National University of Defense Technology, and won the first prize of the National College Students’ Mechanical Innovation Competition, the third prize of the National College Students’ Military Mathematical Modeling Competition, and the second prize of the All-Army College Students’ Military Mathematical Modeling Competition … When he graduated, he left school with the honor of "excellent graduate".
Zhou Jinxi’s pistol accuracy shooting results. Photo courtesy of the Mobile Detachment of Hainan Armed Police Corps
After graduation, she volunteered to be the platoon leader of female soldiers in Xinbinglian. During this period, she taught female soldiers what she had learned in colleges and universities, folded tofu blocks, walked in a straight line and turned right angles, and tempered the blood of soldiers … Under her leadership, young and ignorant female soldiers gradually became "sonorous roses" in the military camp, winning the first queue assessment; Stunning the whole squadron in the first live-fire experience; Active atmosphere in the first hiking March. In the past year-end assessment of police officers in 2021, Zhou Jinxi achieved excellent results of 426 points in five military sports and 48 rounds of pistol precision shooting, which made many male officers feel ashamed. Olive green is full of red flowers, bending over the battlefield, come on, the first batch of second lieutenants! (End)
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Huai ‘an, Jiangsu: During the Spring Festival, the overall social situation in the city was stable and the public order was good.

  During the Spring Festival, the city’s public security organs, in accordance with the unified arrangements of the municipal party committee, the municipal government and the public security organs at higher levels, adhered to the standard of "foolproof, foolproof" and the style of "meticulous and exquisite", fully implemented the first-level response mechanism of high-level service and security, mobilized all the police, made every effort to implement all work measures strictly and conscientiously, successfully completed all security tasks during the Spring Festival holiday, and created a harmonious and stable social environment for the broad masses of people to celebrate the Spring Festival. During the festival, the overall situation of social security in the city continued to be safe and stable, and the public order in tourist attractions and crowded places was good, and no major influential incidents occurred, and the road traffic was orderly.

  The Municipal Party Committee and the Municipal Government attached great importance to the security work during the Spring Festival. Mayor Shi Zhijun, Standing Committee Member of the Municipal Party Committee and Secretary of the Political and Legal Committee Zhou Qing, Vice Mayor and Public Security Director Zhao Lihong went deep into the grass-roots units and duty stations to visit the frontline police and auxiliary police and encourage them to stick to their posts and perform their duties. Before and during the festival, the Municipal Public Security Bureau held video conferences five times to judge the hidden risks, strengthen the work deployment and promote the implementation of measures. The city’s public security organs strictly implement the system of dual-class leadership and 24-hour duty. The members of the Party Committee of the Municipal Public Security Bureau are responsible for the division of labor, and they are responsible for their duties. They go deep into the grassroots front-line supervision, compact their responsibilities, and pay close attention to implementation. Leading cadres at all levels have the courage to take the lead, and all police officers are on duty, faithfully performing their duties and fighting day and night. With the responsibility of "the masses are on holiday and the police are on guard", they are trying their best to protect the lights and protect Huai’ an.

  The city’s public security organs carry out high-level patrol service, investing more than 4,200 patrol police officers and more than 440 vehicles every day, deploying 210 government police officers to support the grassroots front line, and coordinating more than 20 armed police officers to strengthen social patrol control; Around the tourist attractions, bustling business districts, "two stops and one field" and other key parts, 46 military patrol car groups will be deployed to be on duty at any time to deal with emergencies; Adhere to the integration of mobile, standby and patrol, give full play to the advantages of 18 police workstations in policing the street, carry out patrol and police handling, emergency handling and comprehensive services, effectively improve the rate of seeing police and handling affairs, and enhance deterrence and control. We will comprehensively strengthen the analysis of cases that are prone to occur frequently during the holiday season, severely crack down on all kinds of illegal and criminal acts, carry out in-depth centralized rectification of public security, and fully protect people’s lives and property.

  During the Spring Festival, the city’s public security organs continued to strengthen public safety supervision, comprehensively strengthened the safety supervision of rented houses, dangerous goods, logistics delivery and other industries, set up 18 inspection teams, dispatched more than 1,700 people, and inspected 1,135 units, rectifying 339 potential risks; Actively cooperate with relevant departments to strictly investigate the illegal production, storage, transportation and sale of fireworks and firecrackers, increase the patrol of flammable fireworks, strengthen the publicity and guidance of the prohibition of burning and releasing, dispatch more than 7,800 police officers, post more than 172,000 copies of the Notice of Prohibition, hang more than 8,200 banners of Prohibition, and publicize more than 80,000 households; Strictly implement large-scale mass activities and safety management measures in scenic spots. Eight large-scale activities, such as "2023 New Year’s Eve Street" in Zhongzhou Island, Qingjiangpu, and burning incense and praying for blessings on the first day of Ciyun Temple, were held safely and smoothly. The number of tourists in scenic spots such as Westward Journey Paradise and Fangte Paradise reached 516,000, and the scene was orderly, happy and peaceful.

  We will do our best to do a good job in traffic security during the Spring Festival holiday, pay close attention to the two peaks of leaving the city and returning, carefully formulate and dynamically adjust the traffic security plan, and dynamically invest more than 1,200 police officers every day, focusing on expressways, main trunk roads and scenic roads, and focusing on "two passengers and one dangerous side". We will comprehensively strengthen inspection and control, node guidance, and make every effort to ensure safety and smoothness. During the period, more than 7,300 vehicles with "two passengers and one danger" were inspected, and more than 2,600 illegal acts were investigated. The roads around domestic expressways, trunk highways and scenic business districts were safe and smooth, and there was no long-distance traffic congestion and no major traffic accidents.

  The government service windows of public security organs in the city adhere to the needs of enterprises and the masses, and send three "holiday gift packages": offline window delay service, online service of network center and mobile service of convenience through train, and provide convenience for enterprises’ production, transportation and people’s travel life with the service measures of "not closing on holidays". The public security offline service window provides delayed service from January 25th to 27th (the fourth day to the sixth day), and provides emergency service for the rest of the time. The public security network office center is online for 7×24 hours, and the convenience service through train stops at Golden Eagle Shopping Center in Qingjiangpu District, RT Mart in Nanchang Road in Economic Development Zone and Wuyue Square in Ecological Cultural Tourism Zone from January 22nd to 27th (the first day to the sixth day), handling a total of 1,610 businesses. At the same time, Spring Festival travel rush Love Station was set up in duty stations and service areas of expressway toll stations to carry out service activities for the people and provide more than 2,700 people with convenient services such as directions, drinking water and first-aid medicines.

Source: Huai ‘an Police

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Vivo X200 mobile phone has three certificates: it is expected to be equipped with Tianji 9400 processor and support 90W fast charging.

On August 29th, it was reported that a new vivo machine with the model of "V2415A" passed the domestic 3C certification and supported 90W fast charging. According to blogger @ Digital Chat Station, the machine was called vivo X200.

The IT House found that the new V2415A had obtained the network access license for telecommunication equipment on August 26th, and passed the radio approval on August 20th. At this point, the three certificates of this new machine are complete, and it is very close to the market.

▲ Telecom equipment network access license

▲ Radio approval

Previous reports showed that the vivo X200 series/OPPO Find X8 series mobile phones are currently scheduled for October, and earlier than Xiaomi 15 series mobile phones.Vivo X200 series mobile phones are expected to be equipped with Tianji 9400 processor.And OPPO Find X8 series mobile phones (excluding Ultra) have been planned for production, and are also equipped with Tianji 9400 processor.

For reference,Vivo X100 Standard Edition Launches Tianji 9300 Processor, equipped with a 6.78-inch 2800×1260 resolution micro-curved screen, equipped with an equivalent 5000mAh battery, and equipped with a 50MP main camera.

"Apostle Walker 2" reveals ultimate poster, iron triangle side by side to show brotherhood

1905 movie network news  Produced by Le Yiling and Liu Weiqiang, directed by Wen Weihong, starring Zhang Jiahui, Koo Tianle, Wu Zhenyu, and Jiang Pei Yao, co-starring Ma Dezhong, Zhang Yichi, and Liu Yuning. Huang Zhizhong’s special police and bandit action blockbuster is about to land in national theaters at the Qixi Festival on August 7, and the national pre-sale of the film has officially opened on July 26. As the release time approaches, the film released the ultimate version of the poster today. Broken tiles and ruins are looming in the smoke of gunpowder. All the actors may fight fiercely with guns, or stand ready, and the camp is clear. Gu Tianle, Zhang Jiahui, and Wu Zhenyu fought side by side in the iron triangle, and seemed to have gotten out of the mystery of who is the undercover agent, and certified the core of the film that director Wen Weihong has always emphasized – "brotherhood".


The Iron Triangle reunites to defeat the enemy side by side  Walk through the mystery of good and evil, write brotherhood


The final poster released by "Apostle Walker 2" this time reproduces the momentum of the blockbuster. In the battlefield filled with gunpowder, helicopters hover in the air, and various European and Central Asian buildings are destroyed by blasting. This is also the scene of the fierce battle between Myanmar and Spain that will be presented in the film. Zhang Jiahui, Koo Tianle, and Wu Zhenyu are side by side in the iron triangle to fight the enemy, and the mystery of good and evil seems to have been solved. Where will the brotherhood reunion make them go?


Louis Koo

A group of stills released at the same time also reproduced the classic temperament of the IP of "Apostle Walker": stylish. Zhang Jiahui is dressed in white and holding a gun against the enemy, with bullets flying behind him. Koo Tianle is thoughtful in a black jacket, and Wu Zhenyu’s curly-haired suit is quite a Japanese detective. Jiang Peiyao is covered in blood and tears, as if there are many stories. Ma Dezhong frowned and watched the development of the situation. Huang Zhizhong was in a splendid clubhouse, and he looked like a boss. Zhang Yichi, who was covered in blood, looked like a ruthless character, while Liu Yuning, a technical nerd, was in Myanmar at night and was receiving remote instructions. Please wait and see what fate they each bear in the movie.


Zhang Jiahui


The new story of the original team interprets "Operation Spy Shadow"  Production upgrade, China, Hong Kong, Myanmar, Spain "doing things"


"Apostle Walker 2: Spy Action" retains the three classic elements of the previous work: police and bandits, undercover, brotherhood, and the gold medal lineup of directors and starring stars. But "Apostle 2" opens the story with a new character relationship. The battlefield of brothers has also changed from Brazil in the previous work to Hong Kong, Myanmar, and Spain in this time. The iron triangle of Koo Tianle, Cheung Ka-hui, and Wu Zhenyu will perform a new spy action with a new identity. The film is unlocked by a hacker as a fuse, and the police community has fallen into an unprecedented panic. In order to protect the evidence, it is difficult to distinguish the enemy and friends in the police community, and the truth and falsehood are unpredictable. The slogan of the film, Reunion, seems to imply that no matter where they are in different camps, the brotherhood will always be inseparable.


"Apostle Walker 2: Operation Spy Shadow" will be released on August 7, and the national pre-sale has officially opened.


[Fingertip City in 2020] The construction of social governance in Smart Wuzhen has changed from "having" to "excellent"

  Cctv news(Reporter Tian Hong): A thousand-year-old town with clear water. With becoming the permanent host of world internet conference in recent years, Wuzhen, located in Jiaxing, Zhejiang Province, has taken advantage of this "east wind" to carry out a series of explorations in the fields of digitalization and informatization of urban governance, focusing on the intelligent improvement of social governance in towns and realizing the construction of smart towns.

  "You don’t have to spend money to buy goods in this self-service machine, as long as you have ‘ Civilization coin ’ Just do it. " The reporter saw that a Wuzhen resident was paying 45 "civilized coins" through the "Wuzhen Butler" applet and bought a bottle of mineral water. After becoming "Wuzhen Butler", he has accumulated 3,000 "civilized coins", which can be exchanged for biscuits, toothpaste, glutinous rice flour and so on.

  The "Wuzhen Butler Linkage Center" was first established in 2017. It is a comprehensive command platform for social governance integrating online and offline functions. By integrating the information platforms of various departments online, the "Wuzhen Butler Linkage Team" was established offline, realizing the "one network linkage" of social governance.

  In order to realize the leap from "having" to "excellent" in the construction of smart towns, in April, 2020, Wuzhen launched the 3.0 iterative upgrade plan for the construction of smart towns, and formulated the "Planning Plan for the Construction of New Smart Towns in Wuzhen (Smiling Wuzhen)". The exclusive applet of "Wuzhen Butler" was built for the first phase of the project, and a "civilized coin" integral system was established.

  Environmental sanitation cleaning, illegal parking, fire … … Information related to urban governance issues can be submitted by Wuzhen Butler to Wuzhen Butler Linkage Center at the first time through small programs, and the center will manually screen the events. Relevant problem information can be dispatched to government departments and grid workers in the region for processing, or environmental sanitation cleaning and other events that are convenient for the masses to participate in the disposal can be opened to the public, and the masses will "grab the bill" to complete the problem disposal and accumulate "civilized coins".

  In addition to participating in information submission and problem solving, you can also participate in official volunteer activities, and "Wuzhen Butler" can get certain points of "civilized currency". Off-line, "Civilization Coin" has its own self-service machine, which is used to exchange various commodities, and 10 "Civilization Coin" is equal to 1 yuan; Online, there is a "civilized coin" mall, and "Wuzhen Butler" can log in to the mall to shop at any time.

  Jiang Wei, secretary of the Party Committee of Wuzhen Town, said, "In Wuzhen, every ordinary Wuzhen person and every visiting tourist can become Wuzhen &lsquo through registration; Big housekeeper ’ . The key to urban social governance lies in people, and we should mobilize more social groups to participate. Now ‘ Wuzhen housekeeper ’ There are 3,700 people. "

  The establishment of the information platform of "Wuzhen Butler" and the practical exploration of the integral system of "civilized currency" not only mobilized the masses, village communities, social organizations and enterprises to participate in the grassroots society, but also mobilized the enthusiasm of the housekeeper to manage things and built a new pattern of social governance of "multiple participation and collaborative governance".